¿Un ataque preventivo contra Iran en marzo?

De muy diversas fuentes he encontrado informacion que me hacen suponer que es muy probable un ataque contra Iran en marzo de este año,a continuacion voy a poner esas notas traducidas y la nota como fue publicado en la fuente original:

I La opcion de que el ataque sea hecho por los EEUU

De acuerdo con lo que comenta Tim Russert periodista de la NBC "tal parece que en los altos niveles de la casa blanca hay una fuerte conviccion de que el asunto de Iran se va a convertir en algo muy importante para la nacion y el mundo muy pronto" esto esta basado en el reciente envio de fuerzas que son irrelevantes para el combate de la insurgencia iraqui.misiles patriot antimisiles ,un portaviones y barcos lanza misiles cruceros. muchos analistas militares ven en estos despliegues,señales de que viene una guerra con Iran,los misiles patriot serian para derribar misiles iranies lanzados en represalia,las fuerzas navales,incluidos barcos britanicos entrenan para prevenir el cierre del estrecho de hormuz por Iran ,el ataque no seria como en Iraq una invasion por tierra,se atacaria las bases de armas de destruccion masiva iranies y ademas se impediria la capacidad irani de contratacar o tomar medidas de represalia,usando bombarderos que destruyan en los primeros dias 10000 blancos y ademas se enviarian fuerzas especiales para destruir lo que no pudiera ser destruido por aire,ademas Bush anuncio que va a destruir las redes pro iranies y sirias en iraq,esto incluye a las milicias de Al- sadr pero ademas a las brigadas badr creadas por Iran y que ahora visten uniforme de la policia iraqui,en el sur el retiro de las tropas britanicas al aeropuerto de Basora parece hecho mas bien para prevenir unos ataques de represalia de los chiitas iraquies tras el ataque a Iran ,que para el regreso de la soberania a iraq "

There's a strong sense in the upper echelons of the White House that Iran is going to surface relatively quickly as a major issue - in the country and the world - in a very acute way," said NBC TV's Tim Russert after meeting the president. This is borne out by the fact that Bush has sent forces to the Gulf that are irrelevant to fighting the Iraqi insurgents . These include Patriot anti-missile missiles, an aircraft carrier, and cruise-missile- firing ships. Many military analysts see these deployments as signals of impending war with Iran. The Patriot missiles are intended to shoot down Iranian missiles . The naval forces, including British ships , train to pre-empt Iranian interference with oil shipments through the straits of Hormuz. Donald Rumsfeld and the AEI have developed a strategy for regime change in Iran that does not involve a ground invasion. Weapons of mass destruction will provide the rationale for military action, though it won't be limited to attacks on a few weapons factories. It will include limiting Iranian retaliatory capability , using bombers to destroy up to 10,000 targets in the first day of any war, and special forces flying in to destroy anything that 's left. Bush has said he will destroy the Syrian and Iranian networks in Iraq . These may include Moqtada al-Sadr 's militia, but are also likely to target the Iranian-created Badr brigades, now wearing Iraqi police uniforms. In the south, the withdrawal of British troops to Basra airport looks more like a preparation to avoid a Shia backlash than a handover to the government of Iraq.

El 4 de enero Bush cambio a los generales que estaban al mando de las operaciones en Irak y al del del comando central (que tiene que ver con medio oriente) los generales George Casey y el general John Abizaid respectivamente, ambos se oponian a un ataque a Iran, ademas removio a John Negroponte director nacional de inteligencia que habia desestimado la amenaza nuclear irani. Bush puso como jefe del comando central al almirante William Fallon un antiguo aviador naval que estaba al mando del grupo aereo de un portaviones en la operacion "tormenta del desierto" y dirigio todo un grupo de combate de un portaviones en el ataque de la OTAN contra los serbios de bosnia (un ataque donde solo se uso el poder aereo para derrotar a los serbios) y actualmente era Jefe del comando del pacifico,siendo que como jefe del comando central va a tener que manejar dos guerras terrestres: Iraq y afganistan. el haber escogido a Fallon tiene mas sentido si se va a atacar a Iran por via aerea con los dos grupos de portaviones que estarn despelgados en marzo en el golfo persico. Bush quito a Negroponte de su puesto a nivel de gabinete para enviarlo a un puesto de bajo nivel en el departamento de estado,en lugar de Negroponte,Bush puso de director de inteligencia nacional al vice almirante retirado de la marina John Mcconell que es visto como un profesional de la inteligencia y un tecnocrata de bajo perfil y no una figura independiente como era Negroponte y que habia minimizado la amenaza irani

On Jan. 4, Bush ousted the top two commanders in the Middle East, Generals John Abizaid and George Casey, who had opposed a military escalation in Iran. Bush also removed Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte, who had stood by intelligence estimates downplaying the near-term threat from Iran 's nuclear program. Bush appointed Admiral William Fallon as the new chief of Central Command for the Middle East despite the fact that Fallon, a former Navy aviator and currently head of the Pacific Command, will oversee two ground wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The choice of Fallon makes more sense if Bush foresees a bigger role for two aircraft carrier groups off Iran's coast . It has also been suggested that General John Abizaid's retirement as Commander of Central Command ( in charge of all US forces in the Middle East) – announced in December 2006 – was because he objects to the prospect of US action against Iran. More compelling to us was his replacement on 7 January by Admiral William Fallon. To have an Admiral in charge of Central Command when US military operations in the region have been dominated by the Army in Iraq might look odd. However Fallon's background is in the US Naval Aviation service and he led airwings from one US aircraft carrier in the Desert Storm operation against Iraq in 1991 and was in charge of a carrier battle group during Nato's combat missions over Bosnia in 1995. This fits with the scenario of near -term action using carrier groups in the Persian Gulf. This fits with the scenario of near-term action using carrier groups in the Persian Gulf . Bush also shifted Negroponte from his Cabinet- level position as DNI to a sub- Cabinet post as deputy to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. To replace Negroponte, Bush nominated Navy retired Vice Admiral John " Mike" McConnell, who is viewed by intelligence professionals as a low-profile technocrat, not a strong independent figure. McConnell is seen as far more likely than Negroponte to give the administration an alarming assessment of Iran's nuclear capabilities and intentions in an upcoming National Intelligence Estimate . To the consternation of neoconservatives , Negroponte has splashed cold water on their heated rhetoric about the imminent threat from Iran. " Our assessment is that the prospects of an Iranian weapon are still a number of years off, and probably into the next decade," Negroponte said in an interview with NBC News in April 2006. Expressing a similarly tempered view in a speech at the National Press Club, Negroponte said, "I think it's important that this issue be kept in perspective."

El almirante ruso retirado de la flota del mar negro Eduard Baltin dice en una entrevista, que el grupo de cuatro submarinos de ataque de los EEUU que se encuentran en el golfo persico no solo controlan la navegacion del golfo persico ,si no que estan ahi para en caso necesario bloquear las costas iranies y atacar por sorpresa blancos del proyecto nuclear de iran

U.S. Navy nuclear submarines maintaining vigil off the coast of Iran indicate that the Pentagon's military plans include not only control over navigation in the Persian Gulf but also strikes against Iranian targets , a former commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet , Admiral Eduard Baltin has told the Interfax news agency."The presence of U.S. nuclear submarines in the Persian Gulf region means that the Pentagon has not abandoned plans for surprise strikes against nuclear targets in Iran. With this aim a group of multi-purpose submarines ready to accomplish the task is located in the area," Admiral Baltin said .He made the comments after reports that a U.S. submarine collided with a Japanese tanker in the Strait of Hormuz."American patience is not unlimited," he said . "The submarine commanders go up to the periscope depth and forget about navigation rules and safety measures," the admiral said. Currently there is a group of up to four submarines in the Persian Gulf area, he said. So far they only control navigation in the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and in the Arabian Sea, he said . They might receive different orders in future: to block off the Gulf of Oman, that is the Iranian coast , and, if need be, launch missile strikes againstground targets in Iran, he said.

Los EEUU mando a esa region a el grupo de combate del portaviones Dwigth Eisenhower a principios de diciembre y a finales de ese mismo mes mandaron al grupo de combate del portaviones USS John Stennis ,ademas estan listos para desplegarse por si fuera necesario los grupos de combate de los portaviones Kitty Hawk,Enterprise , Nimitz y el Ronald Reagan ,va a ser la primera vez desde la invasionde Irak en el 2003 que esten 2 portaviones en el golfo persico al mismo tiempo,este despliegue naval es una señal de que la accion militar puede estar muy cercana, las otras veces que ha habido 2 portaviones dentro del golfo fueron para los ataques a Irak en las operaciones "tormenta del desierto" de 1991 ,"ataque del desierto" 1996,"zorro del desierto" 1998 y el unico despliegue de 2 portaviones que no hubo ataques fue para presionar a Irak a que cumpla con sus obligaciones de inspecciones de armamento en mayo de 1998,curiosamente el ultimo ejercicio practicado por el John stennis fue de "controlar disturbios civiles en un pais con gobierno debil en un momento de tension global causado por las ambiciones nucleares de un pais vecino" los EEUU tienen desplegado en el golfo persico al grupo de ataque expedicionario 2, una unidad de marines que lleva un año en baharein entrenandose y que segun su jefe "deben de esperar lo inesperado y preparase para todo tipo de mision" ,y anuciaron el 10 de enero que salio para el golfo golfo a la fuerza de ataque del USS bataan que consta de 7 barcos y que lleva 2000 marines y equipo para desembarco antes de desplegarse relizo una serie de ejercicio durante 6 meses incluido el ejercicio de certificacion CERTEX que es una serie de escenarios en evolucion que puso a prueba a todo el grupo de grupo de ataque con una serie de eventos que requieren planeamiento y desarrollo rapido de la mision, ademas la marina real inglesa anuncio que va a a mandar dos barcos dragaminas aesto seria ante la probabilidad de que en el caso de un ataque a Iran es mas que probable que los iranies intentara llenar de minas el estrecho de hormuz

In December , the US moved the Eisenhower aircraft carrier strike group into the Persian Gulf where it is due to remain into March . Later in December it also brought forward the deployment of the John Stennis aircraft carrier strike group to the Persian Gulf, which may now happen by the end of January 2007. Four other carriers, Kitty Hawk, Enterprise, the Nimitz and Ronald Reagan are all reportedly available for deployment to the Gulf if necessary . This naval deployment may be the largest since the 2003 Gulf War and is a signal that military action may be closer . It is officially aimed at 'deterring' Iran or perhaps assisting in imposing stronger sanctions against Iran, but it clearly gives the US more aggressive options. Previous deployments of two carrier groups to the Persian Gulf – aside from the 1991 and 2003 Gulf wars – include the deployment before Operation Desert Strike in 1996 (a two -day bombing campaign), and Operation Desert Fox in 1998 (a three-day bombing campaign). One deployment in May 1998 occurred without bombing – the threat temporarily brought Iraq back into compliance with the UN. It is also curious to note that the last exercise by the John Stennis was scheduled to run from 11-16 November 2006 and was based on the following Joint Task Force Exercise scenario "conducting operations to support a newly elected government against an ongoing insurgency. The operations are placed against a backdrop of increasing civil unrest and rising global tension resulting from a neighbouring country 's nuclear ambitions". February 2007 will also see Expeditionary Strike Group (ESG ) 2, a Marines-based unit ,culminate nearly a year of preparation and deploy to Bahrain. Rear Admiral Garry Hall,Commander of ESG 2 has said, " Any time an ESG , an amphibious squadron or a MEU deploys, they are used in a multitude of events . They should expect the unexpected and be prepared for any mission to come their way" (our italics).

The 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit set sail last week to assume the responsibilities as the nation's ready reserve force within European and Central Commands' areas of responsibility. In its capacity as a strategic reserve asset, the MEU is prepared to support operations on a variety of fronts in the Global War on Terrorism , including in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Horn of Africa. This broad-based mission is aligned with traditional MEU deployments in which Marines and Sailors are poised for conducting contingency operations from forward, sea-based locations. The 26 th MEU is deploying as the landing force for the Bataan Expeditionary Strike Group. In addition to USS Bataan ( LHD-5), the strike group is comprised of the USS Oak Hill (LSD-51), USS Shreveport (LPD-12), USS Nitze ( DDG-94), USS Vella Gulf (CG-72), USS Underwood (FFG -36) and USS Scranton (SSN-756). The 26th MEU, with an approximate strength of 2,200 Marines and Sailors, is comprised of a command element, a ground combat element, an aviation combat element and a logistics combat element . Battalion Landing Team 2/2, Marine Medium Helicopter Squadron – 264 ( Rein.) and Combat Logistics Battalion – 26 joined the command element of the 26th MEU June 23, 2006, to begin six- months of intense training in preparation for the current deployment. During the last six months , the 26th MEU conducted several major exercises , including the Training in an Urban Environment Exercise (TRUEX) and the MEU Exercise (MEUEX). These exercises involved the entire MEU and were carried out simultaneously at Fort Pickett, Va. The MEU 's pre-deployment training concluded Dec . 9 upon the completion of the Certification Exercise (CERTEX), a scenario -based evolution that tested the MEU and Bataan Strike Group with a series of events requiring rapid planning and mission execution. Even the UK is acting, albeit in a far more modest manner , sending two Royal Navy minesweepers to the Persian Gulf. Iran used mines in the Persian Gulf during the 1980-88 war with Iraq in an attempt to limit Arab oil supplies to the rest of the world.

Los EEUU tambien anunciaron que van a desplegar baterias patriot en todos los paises miembros del consejo de coperacion del golfo (CGU por sus siglas en ingles), Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar , Saudi Arabia y los emiratos arabes unidos, que en caso de un ataque de los EEUU a Iran serian victimas de las represalias iranies por medio de misiles balisticos mismos que los patriot estan diseñados para destruir

Instead, he revealed the deployment of an additional carrier strike group to the Persian Gulf and of the Patriot anti -missile defense system to Gulf Cooperation Council ( GCC) states to protect U.S. allies . The usefulness of this step for resolving the violence in Iraq remains a mystery. Neither the Sunni insurgents nor the Shia militias possess ballistic missiles . And if they did, nothing indicates that they would target the GCC states -- Bahrain, Kuwait , Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.The deployment of the Patriot missiles can be explained, however, in light of a U.S. plan to attack Iran. Last year , Tehran signaled the GCC states in unusually blunt language that it would retaliate against the Arab sheikhdoms if the U.S. attacked Iran using bases in the GCC countries. Mindful of the weakness of Iran 's air force, Tehran's most likely weapon would be ballistic missiles -- the very same weapon that the Patriots are designed to provide a shield against. A first step towards going to war with Iran would be to provide the GCC states with protection against potential Iranian retaliation.

II La opcion israeli

ademas de la posibildad de un ataque por parte de los EEUU, esta la posibilidad de que el ataque sea hecho por Israel (que ya hizo un ataque similar en donde destruyo el reactor nuclear iraqui de osirak) Israel tiene el armamento para repetir el exito de osirak en Iran ,tiene aviones F-15 y F-16 equipados con bombas anti bunker,tiene la capacidad y el alcance para atacar 5 o 6 blancos claves incluido el reactor de bushehr la planta de agua pesada de Arak,la planta de enriquecimiento de uranio de natanz y las facilidades alrededorde isfahan y teheran ,tiene submarinos comprados en alemania recientemente capaces de lanzar misiles cruceros desde el golfo persico y que alcanzan todo el este de Iran,a finales del 2005se rumoro que israel enviaria la brigada de fuerzas especiales (unidad 262) para lograr esas metas,ademas salio un reporte de un periodico ingles donde se dice que se esta entrenando un grupo de pilotos para lanzar una bomba nuclear de baja capacidad capaz de abrir un bunker subterraneo para que despues otros pilotos destruyan lo que estaba oculto en el bunker con bombas convencionales

Israel does have the weaponry to repeat this achievement in Iran. F-15/F-16 aircraft equipped with bunker -busting bombs, have the range to strike the 5 or 6 key targets, including the Bushehr nuclear reactor, the heavy water plant at Arak, the Natanz enrichment plans and facilities around Teheran and Isfahan9. Submarine-launched cruise-missiles can target the east of the country. Lastly reports in late 2005 suggested that Israel might use a Special Forces brigade (Unit 262) to achieve its goals. Ground attack was also considered against Osiraq. Reportedly even tactical nuclear weapons have been considered though their actual use would be very surprising . Duration and risks Lessons taken from the Osiraq strike were that any future attack on nuclear facilities would be less likely to be as successful, as countries would deny their nuclear ambitions (making attacks harder to justify) and would disperse facilities (making attacks harder to coordinate). One report concluded that a "future strike may hinder nuclear plans temporarily , [but] the time will not be measured in years unless followed with more strikes". If a single strike is insufficient, Israel may need to be prepared to continue this for some days or (less preferably from their perspective) even weeks . The ideal would be to achieve all goals in a very short period of time. The greater scale of the attack compared to 1981 means the immediate costs to Israel may be higher Two Israeli air force squadrons are training to blow up an Iranian facility using low-yield nuclear " bunker-busters", according to several Israeli military sources.The attack would be the first with nuclear weapons since 1945, when the United States dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The Israeli weapons would each have a force equivalent to one-fifteenth of the Hiroshima bomb.Under the plans, conventional laser-guided bombs would open "tunnels" into the targets. "Mini-nukes" would then immediately be fired into a plant at Natanz, exploding deep underground to reduce the risk of radioactive fallout."As soon as the green light is given, it will be one mission, one strike and the Iranian nuclear project will be demolished," said one of the sources.Israeli military commanders believe conventional strikes may no longer be enough to annihilate increasingly well-defended enrichment facilities. Several have been built beneath at least 70ft of concrete and rock. However, the nuclear-tipped bunker-busters would be used only if a conventional attack was ruled out and if the United States declined to intervene, senior sources said.Israeli and American officials have met several times to consider military action. Military analysts said the disclosure of the plans could be intended to put pressure on Tehran to halt enrichment, cajole America into action or soften up world opinion in advance of an Israeli attack.Israel has identified three prime targets south of Tehran which are believed to be involved in Iran's nuclear programme:Natanz, where thousands of centrifuges are being installed for uranium enrichmentA uranium conversion facility near Isfahan where, according to a statement by an Iranian vice-president last week, 250 tons of gas for the enrichment process have been stored in tunnelsA heavy water reactor at Arak, which may in future produce enough plutonium for a bombIsraeli officials believe that destroying all three sites would delay Iran's nuclear programme indefinitely and prevent them from having to live in fear of a "second Holocaust".

Israeli pilots have flown to Gibraltar in recent weeks to train for the 2,000-mile round trip to the Iranian targets. Three possible routes have been mapped out, including one over Turkey.Air force squadrons based at Hatzerim in the Negev desert and Tel Nof, south of Tel Aviv, have trained to use Israel's tactical nuclear weapons on the mission. The preparations have been overseen by Major General Eliezer Shkedi, commander of the Israeli air force.

III analisis del entorno politico y diplomatico

Se ha dicho que es poco posible que Bush ordene un ataque a Iran siendo que tradicionalmente a partir del sexto año los presidentes de los EEUU se convierten en lo que se llama un "lame duck" y ademas Bush esta especialmnte debilitado por sus desaciertos que ha cometido a lo largo de su catastrofico gobierno pero precisamente como ya no tiene nada que perder y viendo que su sucesor ya no podria impedir que Iran tenga una bomba atomica (en el 2009 todos los analistas estan de acuerdo en que Iran ya tendria una bomba atomica) y teniendo espacio para que (si todo sale bien) este ataque y sus secuelas terminen antes de las elecciones del 2008 ,ahorita para el es el momento oportuno ademas en mayo o junio de este año Tony Blair el primer ministro ingles se retiraria de gobernar por lo que tiene una pequeña ventana para apoyar el ataque antes de retirarse

la ventana diplomatica de la ONU

ya sea que el ataque sea hecho por los EEUU o por Israel ambos pueden aprovechar la oportunidad que les da el vencimiento del plazo que le impuso la ONU a Iran para cumplir con sus obligaciones ante la AIEA el 20 de febrero de 2007 y que seguramente Iran no acatara,previsiblemente la ONU tratara de imponer sanciones a Iran pero Rusia y china no lo aceptaran por lo que los EEUU o Israel podran usar eso como argumento para el ataque .

The UN timetable If Israel does attack Iran, it will want to minimise the inevitable diplomatic fallout that will emerge from this. We believe it may have been waiting for diplomatic efforts to show their evident failure. On 22/23 December 2006 the UN Security Council approved Resolution 1737 which Iran was swift to reject in the following days. The Security Council has threatened to increase the sanctions applying to Iran if the country does not comply within 60 days – which takes us to around 20 February 2007. Assuming Iran continues to ignore the UN, and assuming that China, Russia and others refuse to back harsh sanctions against Iran, Israel may use the UN's failure to act as justification for an attack in late February or March.

estas notas por separado no indicarian nada, pero la suma de todas ellas indican que hay altas probabilidades de un ataque contro Iran en marzo,seguire juntando

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