El loco que gobierna Iran

Investigando un poco mas sobre la hipotesis de que el 22 de agosto Iran planea algo siniestro, encontre este articulo publicado en enero en un periodico ingles que abunda mas en la idea de que Ahmadinejad cree tener una mision divina :preparar el retorno del Mahdi "el salvador divino" ,y lo mas esperpentico (y que voy a resaltar en rojo) es la "manifestacion divina" que tuvo cuando estuvo dando un discurso en la ONU

'Divine mission' driving Iran's new leader By Anton La Guardia
(Filed: 14/01/2006)
As Iran rushes towards confrontation with the world over its nuclear programme, the question uppermost in the mind of western leaders is "What is moving its President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to such recklessness?"
Political analysts point to the fact that Iran feels strong because of high oil prices, while America has been weakened by the insurgency in Iraq.
But listen carefully to the utterances of Mr Ahmadinejad - recently described by President George W Bush as an "odd man" - and there is another dimension, a religious messianism that, some suspect, is giving the Iranian leader a dangerous sense of divine mission.
In November, the country was startled by a video showing Mr Ahmadinejad telling a cleric that he had felt the hand of God entrancing world leaders as he delivered a speech to the UN General Assembly last September.
When an aircraft crashed in Teheran last month, killing 108 people, Mr Ahmadinejad promised an investigation. But he also thanked the dead, saying: "What is important is that they have shown the way to martyrdom which we must follow."
The most remarkable aspect of Mr Ahmadinejad's piety is his devotion to the Hidden Imam, the Messiah-like figure of Shia Islam, and the president's belief that his government must prepare the country for his return.
One of the first acts of Mr Ahmadinejad's government was to donate about £10 million to the Jamkaran mosque, a popular pilgrimage site where the pious come to drop messages to the Hidden Imam into a holy well.
All streams of Islam believe in a divine saviour, known as the Mahdi, who will appear at the End of Days. A common rumour - denied by the government but widely believed - is that Mr Ahmadinejad and his cabinet have signed a "contract" pledging themselves to work for the return of the Mahdi and sent it to Jamkaran.
Iran's dominant "Twelver" sect believes this will be Mohammed ibn Hasan, regarded as the 12th Imam, or righteous descendant of the Prophet Mohammad.
He is said to have gone into "occlusion" in the ninth century, at the age of five. His return will be preceded by cosmic chaos, war and bloodshed. After a cataclysmic confrontation with evil and darkness, the Mahdi will lead the world to an era of universal peace.
This is similar to the Christian vision of the Apocalypse. Indeed, the Hidden Imam is expected to return in the company of Jesus.
Mr Ahmadinejad appears to believe that these events are close at hand and that ordinary mortals can influence the divine timetable.
The prospect of such a man obtaining nuclear weapons is worrying. The unspoken question is this: is Mr Ahmadinejad now tempting a clash with the West because he feels safe in the belief of the imminent return of the Hidden Imam? Worse, might he be trying to provoke chaos in the hope of hastening his reappearance?
The 49-year-old Mr Ahmadinejad, a former top engineering student, member of the Revolutionary Guards and mayor of Teheran, overturned Iranian politics after unexpectedly winning last June's presidential elections.
The main rift is no longer between "reformists" and "hardliners", but between the clerical establishment and Mr Ahmadinejad's brand of revolutionary populism and superstition.
Its most remarkable manifestation came with Mr Ahmadinejad's international debut, his speech to the United Nations.
World leaders had expected a conciliatory proposal to defuse the nuclear crisis after Teheran had restarted another part of its nuclear programme in August.
Instead, they heard the president speak in apocalyptic terms of Iran struggling against an evil West that sought to promote "state terrorism", impose "the logic of the dark ages" and divide the world into "light and dark countries".
The speech ended with the messianic appeal to God to "hasten the emergence of your last repository, the Promised One, that perfect and pure human being, the one that will fill this world with justice and peace".
In a video distributed by an Iranian web site in November, Mr Ahmadinejad described how one of his Iranian colleagues had claimed to have seen a glow of light around the president as he began his speech to the UN.
"I felt it myself too," Mr Ahmadinejad recounts. "I felt that all of a sudden the atmosphere changed there. And for 27-28 minutes all the leaders did not blink…It's not an exaggeration, because I was looking.
"They were astonished, as if a hand held them there and made them sit. It had opened their eyes and ears for the message of the Islamic Republic."
Western officials said the real reason for any open-eyed stares from delegates was that "they couldn't believe what they were hearing from Ahmadinejad".
Their sneaking suspicion is that Iran's president actually relishes a clash with the West in the conviction that it would rekindle the spirit of the Islamic revolution and - who knows - speed up the arrival of the Hidden Imam.

refugiados cristianos libaneses denuncian a hezbolá

El New York Times reporta las tacticas miserables y cobardes que usa hezbolá disparando cohetes contra los israelis desde zonas donde habitan cristianos ademas de impedir bajo amenazas de muerte que lo cristianos puedan huir de la zona (claro lo que pasa es que esos cristianos libaneses son dhimmis)
Christians Fleeing Lebanon Denounce Hezbollah
TYRE, Lebanon, July 27 — The refugees from southern Lebanon spilled out of packed cars into the dark street here Thursday evening, gulping bottles of water and squinting in the glare of the headlights to find family members and friends. Many had not eaten in days. Most had not had clean drinking water for some time. There were wounded swathed in makeshift dressings, and a baby just 16 days old.
But for some of the Christians who had made it out in this convoy, it was not just privations they wanted to talk about, but their ordeal at the hands of hezbollah — a contrast to the Shiites, who make up a vast majority of the population in southern Lebanon and broadly support the militia.
“Hezbollah came to Ain Ebel to shoot its rockets,” said Fayad Hanna Amar, a young Christian man, referring to his village. “They are shooting from between our houses.”
“Please,’’ he added, “write that in your newspaper.”
The evacuation — more than 100 cars that followed an International Committee for the Red Cross rescue convoy to Tyre — included Lebanese from several Christian villages. In past wars, Christian militias were close to Israelis, and animosity between Christians and Shiites lingers.
Throngs of refugees are now common in this southern coastal town, the gateway to the war that is booming just miles away. The United Nations has estimated that 700,000 Lebanese, mostly from the southern third of the country, have been displaced by the war.
But thousands of people have been left behind, residents and the Red Cross say.
What has prevented many from fleeing is a critical shortage of fuel. Roland Huguenin-Benjamin, a spokesman for the Red Cross who accompanied the convoy to Tyre, said Red Cross officials had offered to lead out any people who wanted to drive behind, but many did not have enough gasoline for the trip.
Those who did get out were visibly upset. Some carried sick children. A number broke down it tears when they emerged from their cars here.
“People are dying under bombs and crushed under houses,” Nahab Aman said, sobbing and hugging her young son. “We’re not dogs! Why aren’t they taking the people out?”
Many Christians from Ramesh and Ain Ebel considered Hezbollah’s fighting methods as much of an outrage as the Israeli strikes. Mr. Amar said Hezbollah fighters in groups of two and three had come into Ain Ebel, less than a mile from Bint Jbail, where most of the fighting has occurred. They were using it as a base to shoot rockets, he said, and the Israelis fired back.
One woman, who would not give her name because she had a government job and feared retribution, said Hezbollah fighters had killed a man who was trying to leave Bint Jbail.
“This is what’s happening, but no one wants to say it” for fear of Hezbollah, she said.

La batalla de Bint Jublay "la capital de hezbolá"

en los siguientes articulos se habla de la batalla de la ciudad de Bint Jublay en el sur de Libano,en donde hezbolá combatio como un ejercito profesional mas que como un grupo terrorista (aunque obviamente sigue siendo un grupo de terroristas despreciables) tambien se ve como el ejercito israeli (IDF) evito a toda costa hacer fuego en las zonas donde habia civiles y ademas se dice que hay cadaveres de guardias revolucionarios iranies

The Battle of Bint Jubayl and Hezbollah's Army
By Bill Roggio
As the smoke clears from the fighting in the Lebanese border town of Bint Jubayl, Hezbollah's military capabilities become clearer. Today, 8 israeli soldiers from the Golani brigade's 51st battalion were killed and 22 wounded during a "well-planned Hezbollah ambush on the outskirts" outside of Bint Jubayl. This follows the 4 killed and 18 wounded during sunday's engagement in the town.
Hezbollah was reported to have suffered 150 killed as of this morning, and another 40 killed in today's action after fighting "gun battles at point-blank range." An unnamed American military officer reports several Hezbollah operatives, whose primary purpose is logistical support, have been captured and are currently being interrogated by Israeli intelligence.
The Hezbollah bunker in Bint Jubayl was taken nearly intact. Hezbollah attempted to destroy the equipment in the bunker, but was not successful in destroying it all, according to an intelligence source. Abu Jaafar, the Hezbollah commander in southern Lebanon, may have killed himself rather than being captured. The Israeli troops seized Hezbollah computers, documents and monitoring devices used to observe the Israeli border, in addition to the "electronic surveillance equipment, weapons and communication devices made in Iran" which was reported yesterday. The bunker served as the equivalent of a Hezbollah headquarters and command and control center for the southern border.
The Israelis targeted the town of Bint Jubayl with the hope of obtaining further intelligence on Hezbollah's organization and capabilites, as well as the location of their two captured soldiers. The documents and computer seized by the IDF may outline Hezbollah's command and organizational structure in southern Lebanon, although this is unknown at this time. Israeli intelligence is currently analyzing the data.
The Israelis have confirmed that Hezbollah is fighting like a professional military. Their units are fighting at the company level at the least (Unit size of approximately 100 men), and perhaps in larger formations. Intelligence also confirms there is specialization within the Hezbollah units, including trained infantry, mortar teams, missile squads, and logistical personal. Iran has trained and organized Hezbollah's army into something far more deadly than a militia force. Hezbollah's core 'active' army is estimated at 3,000 - 5,000, with as many as 50,000 part time militia and support personnel that can be called upon to fight (20,000 is the average estimate).
Intelligence sources also have confirmed that members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps Qods Force have indeed been killed during the fighting in southern Lebanon

8 soldiers killed in Battle of Bint Jbail
A well-planned Hizbullah ambush on the outskirts of the southern Lebanese village of Bint Jbail on Wednesday devastated Battalion 51 of the Golani Brigade, leaving eight soldiers, including three officers, dead and 24 wounded.
Later, a paratrooper officer was killed and three of his men were wounded, two seriously, when hit by an anti-tank missile on the outskirts of nearby Maroun al-Ras. The officer was later identified as Lt. Yiftah Shrier, 21, from Haifa.
Dozens of Hizbullah gunmen armed with antitank missiles and machine guns and geared up in night-vision goggles and bulletproof vests set a trap for a force of Golani infantrymen led by Lt.-Col. Yaniv Asor, commander of Battalion 51. At 5 a.m. Wednesday, Asor and his men asked the Golani command center for permission to
enter an area of the outskirts of Bint Jubayl. Col. Tamir Yidai, commander of the brigade, gave the green light for the operation. Asor and his men moved quickly through approximately 15 one-story homes. But as the troops moved through the narrow alleyways, a strong Hizbullah force sent a wave of gunfire and missiles at the force, killing and wounding several soldiers in the first moments of the fight. As Asor and his men fought to regain control of the situation, other Hizbullah cells outflanked them and opened fire on the force as well as other IDF positions in the town.
The battle lasted for several hours during which Asor and his men sustained heavy casualties and killed at least 40 Hizbullah guerrillas, some in gunbattles at point-blank range. Then the evacuation of the wounded began, which lasted six hours due to incessant enemy fire. Four IAF helicopter pilots risked their lives by landing in enemy territory.
Men from the Golani's elite reconnaissance unit and from Battalion 51 carried stretchers with their wounded comrades for three kilometers to the helicopters, which landed for just under one minute at a time beneath a cover of smoke grenades and massive artillery fire before taking off to evacuate the wounded to Israeli hospitals.
Meanwhile at the Golani Brigade's command center, emotions ran high as word came in of the fierce gunbattle and the heavy casualties. Soldiers ran back and forth with maps and officers screamed into encrypted cellular phones coordinating the evacuation of the wounded.
At one point, Brig.-Gen. Gal Hirsh, commander of Division 91, stepped out of the command center to update Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Dan Halutz. "We can't land the helicopters," he said. "The fighting is too intense."
On Tuesday, things in the town had looked entirely different. The IDF, senior officers announced matter-of-factly, had it surrounded and were in control of the town. "The town is in our control," Hirsh said Tuesday. "The work is almost completed and the terrorists are fleeing." Some terrorists, however, seem to have remained, with deadly results.
The Golani's fight didn't end the combat Bint Jbail. Wednesday evening, after the IDF had once again declared it had secured the town, a Paratrooper force nearby was hit by a Sagger antitank missile.
One officer was killed and three soldiers were wounded in the attack and in the gunfight that ensued.
A high-ranking source in the Northern Command told The Jerusalem Post Wednesday that Bint Jbail could not be attacked by air since there were still several hundred civilians there. The officer said that the fighting in the town would continue at least for a day or two.
OC Northern Command Maj.-Gen. Udi Adam said that the war in Lebanon would continue for several more weeks.
"There will unfortunately be more days like this," Adam told reporters. "We need to achieve our goal to completely overcome Hizbullah."

Agosto 22 ¿el dia de terror irani?

En el siguiente articulo se lanza la hipotesis de que el 22 de agosto ,dia en que segun la tradicion islamica, mahoma asciende al paraiso tras volar en un buraq (caballo con cara humana) desde la meca hasta Jerusalem y de hay al paraiso, Iran va a lanzar un ataque sorpresa ya sea contra Israel o contra algun otro lugar indeterminado,en este blog he estado advirtiendo de que el iluminado que gobierna Iran esta lanzando declaraciones muy intrigantes e inquietantes,quizas esta nota confirma lo que vengo advirtiendo:

Iran's Day of Terror?

By Robert Spencer July 27, 2006
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has frustrated Western officials by refusing to reply to their offer of various incentives in exchange for Iran’s discarding its nuclear program until August 22. The Western governments had asked Ahmadinejad to reply by June 29; why would Tehran need two extra months?
Farid Ghadry, the president of the Reform Party of Syria, has offered a provocative explanation for this delay. He asserts that the Supreme National Security Council of Iran chose the August 22 date “for a very precise reason. August 21, 2006 (Rajab 27, 1427) is known in the Islamic calendar as the Night of the Sira’a and Miira’aj, the night Prophet Mohammed (saas) ascended to heaven from the Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem on a Bourak (Half animal, half man), while a great light lit-up the night sky, and visited Heaven and Hell also Beit al-Saada and Beit al-Shaqaa (House of Happiness and House of Misery) and then descended back to Mecca.…”

The Night Journey, or Miraj, is central to Islam’s claim to Jerusalem as an Islamic holy city. According to Islamic tradition, Muhammad was carried on a Buraq, a miraculous horse with a human head, from Mecca to Jerusalem, where he ascended into heaven and met the other prophets. The only thing the Qur’an has to say about it is this: “Glory to (Allah) Who did take His servant for a Journey by night from the Sacred Mosque to the farthest Mosque, whose precincts We did bless, in order that We might show him some of Our Signs: for He is the One Who heareth and seeth (all things)” (17:1). There is no identification of the “farthest Mosque” with any mosque in Jerusalem in this, but the Hadith is very clear on the identification of its location with Jerusalem.

The traditions say that Muhammad and the Buraq, along with the angel Gabriel, went to the Temple Mount, and from there to heaven itself, where Muhammad encountered various prophets. In the sixth heaven was Moses, occasioning a dig at the Jews. “When I left him,” Muhammad says, “he wept. Someone asked him, ‘What makes you weep?’ Moses said, ‘I weep because after me there has been sent (Muhammad as a Prophet) a young man, whose followers will enter Paradise in greater numbers than my followers.’”

Evidently, however, Muhammad’s stories of his journey were not altogether convincing: even some of the Muslims abandoned their faith and challenged Muhammad’s most faithful follower, Abu Bakr, to do the same. Abu Bakr was contemptuous: “If he says so then it is true. And what is so surprising in that? He tells me that communications from God from heaven to earth come to him in an hour of a day or night and I believe him, and that is more extraordinary than that at which you boggle!” The world has continued to witness such unshakeable devotion from Muslims to this day.

Did Muhammad really go anywhere? According to his favorite wife, Aisha, he did not: “The apostle’s body remained where it was but God removed his spirit by night.” Nevertheless, the Night Journey has become firmly embedded in the Islamic consciousness, such that Muslims today celebrate it as one of the central events of Muhammad’s life. And now, according to Ghadry, Ahmadinejad is planning an illumination of the night sky over Jerusalem to rival the one that greeted the Prophet of Islam on his journey. What the Iranian President, he says, is “promising the world by August 22 is the light in the sky over the Aqsa Mosque that took place the night before. That is his answer to the package of incentives the international community offered Iran on June 6.”

Certainly a nuclear attack on Jerusalem or even an all-out conventional assault against Israel by Iran would be consistent with Ahmadinejad’s oft-repeated denials of Israel’s right to exist and recent predictions that its demise was at hand. He hinted at the use of nuclear weapons in his phrasing when he said that Israel “pushed the button of its own destruction” by finally retaliating against Hizballah’s relentless rocket barrage from south Lebanon.

“Arrogant powers,” Ahmadinejad said, “have set up a base for themselves to threaten and plunder nations in the region. But today, the occupier regime” – that is, Israel – “whose philosophy is based on threats, massacre and invasion, has reached its finishing line.”

Will he attempt to make good on these threats this year on the anniversary of the Miraj, illuminating the night sky over Jerusalem? Will Western powers heed Farid Ghadry’s words and move to stop Iran before it is too late?

¿donde esta el sistema de antimisiles de israel?

En el siguiente reporte se analiza por que Israel no ha usado su sistema de defensa antimisiles contra los cohetes que le ha disparado Hezbolá desde Libano
Israel’s missile defense systems: MIA
Even though the country has been bombarded with missiles and rockets for well over a week, Israel's missile defense system has yet to make an appearance.
By Victoria Samson
Despite being inundated with volleys from Hezbollah – at writing, estimates range from 700 to 1,500 missiles and rockets launched at Israel in the past week – Israel’s two missile defense systems have been silent. Neither its Arrow system (co-developed with the United States) nor its version of the Patriot has been used in this conflict, largely because they are not designed to handle the kind of threat that Hezbollah represents. Hezbollah is shooting projectiles that have ranges mostly around 10 miles, while the missile defense systems are geared toward shooting down missiles that range from a couple hundred to roughly 1,000 miles.
Israel has a two-tiered missile defense system. The first, the Arrow Weapon System, is to intercept ballistic missiles in their final phase of flight. It would do so by shooting the US-developed Arrow II interceptor at a threat. Once the Israel-developed Green Pine Fire Control Radar, Citron Tree Fire Control Center and Hazel Nut Tree Launcher Center have sent the interceptor near the target, the Arrow II would blow up, with the hope that the fragments from the blast would either destroy the target or knock it sufficiently off course so that it would no longer remain a threat. There are two Arrow batteries deployed. One covers the center of Israel from its position in Palmahim, while the other in Ein Shemer is supposed to defend Israel’s northern territory. The Arrow systems do not move around very quickly and it is uncertain how much defense the two Arrow batteries would be able to provide to the southern part of the country.
Israel also has an early version of the US Patriot missile defense system. The Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC)-2 is designed to defend against ballistic missile targets in their terminal phase as well; also, it would provide defense via a blast-fragmentation warhead (as opposed to the United States’ more advanced version, the PAC-3, which uses kinetic energy from a direct hit to provide a defense). The Patriot differs from the Arrow in that it aims at targets which are at lower altitudes.
The main reason why neither missile defense system has been used is because they are not designed to intercept short-range rockets. It is estimated that of the 13,000 or so rockets and missiles in Hezbollah’s arsenal, 11,000 of them are of the Katyusha type. These rockets have a short range – maybe up to nine miles or so – and a small warhead of roughly 40 pounds. Based on vintage Soviet technology, these rockets can be rolled out of a hiding place, shot and rolled back in before any detection can be made. Their flight is over in seconds, making tracking difficult, much less shooting anything down. A system would have to be in exactly the right place to detect the missile once it is launched, then the defensive system would have to make a nearly instantaneous decision to respond, after which the interceptor would have to get to the target quickly enough to destroy it. It is an exceedingly difficult proposition when the flight times are as short as those launched by Hezbollah.
Hezbollah is thought to have received help from Iran on its weapon arsenal. Indeed, it has surprised the Israelis with what looked like Iranian-origin Fajr 3’s, which can take a 200-pound warhead up to 25 miles, and Fajr 5’s, which can send a 385-pound warhead up to 45 miles. There were reports that Israel destroyed a launcher for a Zelzal missile in Beirut, thought to range 65 to 120 miles.
The biggest jump in Hezbollah’s capabilities was revealed when it targeted and hit an Israeli warship with a radar-seeking cruise missile. This level of technical prowess had been heretofore unknown by Hezbollah. On 14 July, two missiles were launched at Israel’s Hanit, which was stationed roughly 10 miles off the coast of Lebanon. The first missile (C-801/802 Chinese Silkworm cruise missile) apparently was deliberately sent high so that the ship would deploy its defenses, allowing a second low-flying cruise missile, probably a C-701 TV guided missile, to come in unnoticed and make a direct hit. One Israeli soldier was killed in the attack. Furthermore, the first missile locked onto an Egyptian vessel about 30 miles off the shore of Lebanon and hit it, apparently following its radar after it flew over the Hanit.
This attack is reminiscent of 2003’s Operation Iraqi Freedom, where the Iraqi military jury-rigged several old Chinese Silkworms to fly over land against unsuspecting US military bases.
Both of these instances underline a very important distinction: the missile defenses Israel has deployed at present, and that the United States had fielded at the time, were designed to detect, track and intercept ballistic missiles. Ballistic missiles fly very different trajectories than cruise missiles. The latter fly more erratically, are lower to the ground, and are overall more difficult to track. Cruise missiles bring an entirely different level of threat to the situation.
Also, the Patriot and the Arrow tracking systems tend to get overloaded when there are too many airborne targets to follow. Given that Hezbollah is sending up volleys of missiles and rockets, and that the Israeli air force has sent many of its aircraft on bombing raids against Lebanese territory, this air picture is extremely complicated and challenging for any system to pick out appropriate airborne targets.
Finally, despite Israel’s two-tiered missile defense system, it is missing the capability to defend against short-range missiles. According to Uzi Rubin, the founder of the Arrow, it is not optimized for threats with ranges below 125 miles or so. In May, the Israeli government awarded a contract to a Raytheon/Rafael team to provide a defense against missiles with ranges of 24 to 155 miles. This new short-range ballistic missile defense system, which would use a direct intercept to destroy its targets, is supposed to also defend against cruise missiles. However, it is still in the very early planning stages, with its development continuing through 2010. In the meantime, Israel can defend itself the old-fashioned way: through conventional attacks on ground targets thought to be associated with Hezbollah or diplomatic forays.

hezbolá esta activando sus celulas terroristas "durmientes

desde hace una semana estan empezando a salir reportes de que hezbolá esta activando sus celulas de terroristas que tiene como durmientes en europa occidental y los EE.UU y hoy los servicios secretos alemanes lo confirman:

German Intelligence Supports Claim of Hizballah Cell Activation
By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross
On Sunday, I discussed a Jerusalem Post report claiming that Hizballah sleeper cells outside Lebanon had been put on standby. While I noted the plausibility of this claim, I cautioned that it seemed the Jerusalem Post had no source to which it could be attributed.
The evidence begins to build today, as Adnkronos International reports: "'Sleeper' cells belonging to militant Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah are present in Western Europe, Latin America and in southeast Asia and been ordered to be ready to carry out terrorist attacks should Israel prolong its military offensive against Lebanon, according to unnamed German intelligence sources." While "unnamed German intelligence sources" isn't ideal confirmation, Germany is known to have decent intelligence assets in the Middle East.
There have been a number of CT Blog posts on Hizballah's massive international terrorist network. In particular, Zachary Abuza's post about Hizballah activity in Southeast Asia and Brian Hecht's reference guide to Hizballah activity in North America are worth reading.
Two major considerations may keep Hizballah from authorizing these cells to carry out attacks. The first is that Hizballah is depending on world opinion to draw Israel out of Lebanon, thus allowing the terrorist outfit to live to fight another day. As Bill Roggio notes, "Diplomatic pressure for Israel to halt operations and accept a cease fire will only increase as time goes by. The United States can deflect the pressure for only so long." But if Hizballah unleashes terror attacks against Israeli targets elsewhere in the world, the pressure against Israel may substantially diminish. A second consideration is Iran, Hizballah's major sponsor. Iran almost certainly wants to keep as many sleeper cells as possible in place to serve as a deterrent against a possible U.S. attack on its nuclear program. In Iran's view, unleashing the sleeper cells now may be premature.
If Hizballah does launch an attack in the present environment, the U.S. is one of the less likely places for it to do so. Europe is a more likely target for a number of reasons. Most prominent is Europe's coordination problem. If Hizballah attacks a synagogue in Oklahoma, every state in the Union will instantly clamp down on suspected Hizballah activity. But if Hizballah bombs a synagogue in Italy, that doesn't necessarily mean that the various countries comprising the EU will uniformly clamp down on Hizballah.

el mejor analisis del conflicto en Libano

El Dr Walid Phares hace un analisis muy metodico y detallado de la guerra que acaba de empezar en Libano, donde demuestra con hechos contundentes y reveladores la participacion Siria e Irani en este conflicto que no se inicio casualmente, todo fue orquestrado desde hace mas de un año:
HIZBOLLAH’S IRANIAN WAR IN LEBANON
By Walid Phares
When Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, secretary general of Hezbollah held his press conference to declare his new victory over his enemy, Israel, he was triggering –probably without knowing- a new era in the history of Lebanon and the region. “We will continue in faithfulness to our line,” he declared, in legitimizing his cross border attack on an Israeli patrol, killing soldiers and kidnapping two. But the real “fidelity” Nasrallah was referring to wasn’t to his captured men in Israeli jails, but to the regimes decision-makers in Tehran and Damascus. The “operation of July” came as a tipping point in a larger conflict, which superseded Hezbollah’s detainee, the Shebaa farms, borders skirmishes and Israeli tactical responses. Beyond and above the events of that day, Hezbollah was triggering the first Iranian war on Lebanon’s soil: A Syrian-supported offensive, even at the height of the Assad II regime. Brining fire and smoke to the Lebanese-Israeli borders, and week before to the Gaza-Israel demarcation lines, is not simply two local disputes, one over unilateral Israeli withdrawal in Gaza and the other over real estate on the western slopes of Mount Hermon. Nasrallah (as well as his counterpart of Hamas) has calculated perfectly how to conduct a hit and run with the Israelis ordered by regional regime who have miscalculated their strategies. Pressured by the new regional realities and world concerns about nuclear threats and Terrorism, Iran and Syria wanted to throw their allies into the greatest uncertainties of survival.
The road to the current Conflict
But as Israel’s Air Force began to pound Nasrallah’s organization and Lebanon’s transportation and communications infrastructure, and the media reported the war in progress with its horrific images, world opinion and decision-centers commenced to swing in all directions, seeking a name to the War and a projection of its ending, with great difficulties. Attempts are still ongoing to frame it from the most simplistic to the most conspiratorial: Lebanon is a beautiful country, it doesn’t deserve violence and victimization, says the less informed. Indeed such lamentation should have been expressed since 1975, when this country was thrown to the lions. Between the PLO attacks since the beginning of the War, the Syrian occupation as of June 1976, the Israeli invasion of 1982 and the Iranian penetration of the 1980s, in addition to the civil war between all communities, more than 180,000 people were massacred and killed, with very little compassion under the Cold War and despite its end in 1990. While most militias disarmed in 1991, only one camp dodged that duty: Iranian-backed Syrian-protected Hezbollah and its allies. Co-ruling the country with Syria’s security services, the militia presented itself as a “resistance” for a whole decade, building its networks, and consolidating power inside the country while claiming liberation against Israel’s occupation of the south. The “Khumeinist resistance” endorsed the Syrian “occupation” of Lebanon and never struggled to free its compatriots in Damascus’ jails. In May 2000 it achieved victory over Israel and its local allies, by occupying the so-called “security zone” in southern Lebanon after the latter being evacuated by the Israeli Government. Since then, Hezbollah reached its golden age: Control of about 70 km of international borders with the “Zionist entity,” warranting hundreds of millions of dollars and other military support from Iran’s Pasdarans; but also appropriation of enormous Government assets and resources under the auspices of Syrian control.
Between 2000 and 2005, Hezbollah increased its influence in Lebanese politics, becoming the dominant force, and remaining the principal ally of Syrian occupation. In this half decade, Tehran supplied the organization with weapons capable of reaching remote areas inside Israel. In those years as well, Hezbollah extended and grew its cells around the world including in South America, North America, West Africa and Western Europe. But the surge to high power, both in Lebanon and worldwide began to face challenges as of September 11, 2001.

The crisis years
From when the American public mobilized against Terrorism in general to the first US-led intervention in Afghanistan, Tehran’s leaders got extremely nervous about the changes hitting their neighborhood. Any democracy anywhere around them is a bad omen. When the Taliban regime was removed from Kabul in 2001, Tehran’s Khumenists witnessed the rise of women in the electoral process and within the Afghani Government. Iranian leaders understood the future implications at home. When Saddam’s regime was removed from Baghdad, Khamenei’s elite wasn’t unhappy with the removal, but with the multi party process that followed, even though they succeeded in inserting their influence in it. And when UNSCR 1559 was voted calling on Syria’s withdrawal from Lebanon and Hizbollah’s disarming, both Tehran and Damascus felt the heat pressuring their joint influence on the Eastern Mediterranean. The Syrian Baathist reaction to the new era was quick with the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri on February 14, 2005. Assad paid a dear price for this fast drawing and shooting against his opponents in Lebanon. In March of that year, and despite an attempt by Hezbollah to shore up popular support to the Syrian President inside Lebanon, one million and a half citizens marched in the street of Beirut, shattering the myth of both Syrian “brotherly” occupation and Hizbollah’s untouched position in the country. With the political weakening of its allied organization by the public and the pulling out of Damascus’ regular troops from Lebanon, Iran’s regime mobilized for the counter regional attack. Hezbollah readied for its role in the general Jihadi offensive.
The counter offensive
The Jihadi Syro-Iranian offensive started simultaneously in early 2005, with the Hariri assassination in Lebanon and the selecting of Mahmoud Ahmedinijad as head of the Islamic Republic in Tehran. In Lebanon and as the pro-Syrian Government collapsed, new elections were held and an anti-Syria majority was established, Hezbollah executed a sophisticated one year plan in preparation for the war launched in July 2006. It began with Nasrallah imposing on the Seniora Government a strange offer: taking three members of the Party into his cabinet, while Hezbollah maintains a strategic relation with Syria’s regime. That success brought other moves forward. For six months, political leaders and journalists of the Cedars Revolution were assassinated with car bombs: Samir Qassir, George Hawi and Gebran Tueni. This sufficed to convince the anti-Syrian politicians that any serious obstruction of the Iranian-Syrian axis and opposition to Hezbollah will be “punished.” The terror treatment seemed to have worked, as the Government was forced to abandon the implementation of UNSCR 1559 and have its components sit down with Hezbollah to “discuss” the future of its weapons. In short, it took Nasrallah and his allies less than a year to contain and weaken the Cedars Revolution and the Government it has produced. Twelve months passed after Syria’s withdrawal from the country, and yet the Lebanese army was not allowed by Hezbollah’s veto power inside the Seniora cabinet to deploy along the borders or even inside the sensitive area of south Lebanon. Strategically, Hezbollah absorbed the consequences of the Syrian withdrawal, penetrated the Government and along with pro-Syrian politicians created further divisions within Lebanon’s religious communities, including within Sunni, Druze and Christian political establishments.
Regional acceleration
During 2006, several factors pushed Iran and Syria to press their allies in Lebanon and in Palestine for havoc. The nuclear crisis with Tehran was the principal factor for convincing the Mullahs that a major crumbling of the region’s new democracies and peace processes is vital to deflect the crisis away from Tehran. In fact the international determination to remove the Iranian nuclear threat was breaking Ahmedinijad’s ambitions for increasing international power. The several elections in Iraq, despite terrorism, indicated the rise of the political process in that country, with future impact on Iran itself. Syria’s isolation as a result of the UN investigation in the Hariri assassination further convinced the Assad regime that inflaming the Gaza and the Israeli-Lebanese borders is the recipe to overshadow the UN report. Hamas also had developed interest in the clash with the “Zionist enemy,” as the financial credibility of their newly formed Government in the Palestinian areas was sinking down and a civil war with Fatah looming on the horizon. And finally Hezbollah: the militia-turned party and still listed as a Terrorist organization on the US list of terrorist group, used extreme patience since 2000 in building its hyper-arsenal across the country, infiltrated the Army and avoided major escalation against Israel. But on Bastille Day Sayyed Nasrallah ended the previous era of preparedness: Now is the time for a qualitative Jihad, he seemed to imply.
Lebanese factors
In addition to the regional injunctions to strike Israel in order to focus the international heat on the Arab Israeli conflict, Hezbollah has also included a number of “Lebanese” factors in its decision to flare up the borders with its enemy. Back in March 2005, the leaders of the Iranian-backed organization saw in disbelief the enormous masses marching against Syria, and by ripple effect, against Hezbollah. Not only the largest democracy demonstration in the history of the Middle East, but also a multiethnic and multi-religious one: Christians, Druze, Sunnis and even some Shiites broke the taboo of Hezbollah’s “sacred” character in Lebanon. Second nightmare was with the actual withdrawal of the Syrian army from the country, opening the path for the implementation of the second item of the UNSCR 1559, i.e., disarming the fundamentalist militia. The third nightmare came when this anti-Syrian coalition brought a majority in Parliament during the May-June 2005 legislative elections in Lebanon. The threat to Hezbollah was not the formation of a cabinet opposing Syrian influence in as much as it was a signal that the people of Lebanon wasn’t endorsing the “resistance” story, or put it simply, wasn’t buying the party’s story period. The Cedars Revolution was the worse development the Khumeinist movement had to absorb since its inception. The sight of a million young men and women in colorful outfits marching in downtown Beirut was the beginning of a new era: liberal democracy, freedom and rejection of the dark ideology of Nasrallah. Hence, it became a must to eliminate that revolution at any price.
The slaughter of the Cedars Revolution
In a few months, a number of leading politicians and journalists were savagely murdered by the pro-Syrian camp: Syrian intelligence, Hezbollah and other groups were suspected as being behind the assassination campaign. In parallel, Hezbollah and its allies outmaneuvered the parliamentary majority, which was supposed to form an anti-Baathist Government, bring down the pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud and remove the pro-Syrian speaker of the House, Nabih Berri. A magic hand convinced the so-called politicians of the March 14 movement, that none of these measures is feasible. Hence Syria maintained its power in Lebanon, while U.S and French Presidents were singing the praise of the liberation of Lebanon. Furthermore, and in a suicidal move the Lebanese cabinet, headed by Fouad Seniora invited Hezbollah to join the Government, before the latter disarm. By the summer of last year, the Cedars Revolution was bleeding seriously. Not only entrenched in the legal Government of Lebanon, but Hezbollah succeeded in a penetration of the Christian community, the hardcore of the anti-Syrian resistance, by enlisting the former commander of the Lebanese Army who performed an about face after 10 years in exile, where he claimed opposition to Syria. Michel Aoun signed an agreement of “understanding” with Hassan Nasrallah during the spring of 2006. The “revolution” was beheaded and Hezbollah was waiting for the right time to operate its come back into the center of Lebanese politics, while executing the instructions of Tehran and Damascus.
The “Waad al sadeq” operation
By early July 2006, Hezbollah’s preparations for the bloody return to the top were fulfilled. The organization had already accomplished its Lebanese tasks:
1) Elimination (direct or in conjunction with Syrian intelligence or Syrian Social Nationalists) of visible symbols of anti-Syrian leadership: Tueni, Qassir and Hawi, and attempts against others such as May Chidiac, as an intimidation lesson to all others.
2) Paralysis of PM Seniora’s cabinet from the inside and in cooperation with President Lahoud networks on the outside.
3) Paralysis of the parliament in collaboration with speaker Berri and the Aoun bloc.
4) Dragging the political forces in the country in the so-called national dialogue on the weapons of Hezbollah, a major waste of time and marginalization of the 1559 stipulation
3) Intimidation of the Lebanese army command.
4) Attempts to divide the Lebanese Diaspora by implanting agents linked to the axis.
5) Reactivation of the pro-Syrian and Jihadist networks in Lebanon and within the Palestinian camps.
6) Distribution of weapons among allied militias
7) Finally and most importantly, completing the final steps in the deployment of a system of rockets and long range artillery batteries aimed at Israel.

It is based on these domestic achievements in Lebanon and on strategic injunctions by its regional sponsors that Hezbollah decided to trigger its awaited Armageddon. What was the Hezbollah’s initial plan? The pro-Iranian militia had constructed a theory of invincibility based on the rationalization of a string of former successes against the United States and France in the 1980s, against Israel and the ex-South Lebanon Army in the 1990s, and its intimidation of the Cedars Revolution in 2005. In short, Nasrallah’s team was convinced of the following: A spectacular operation against Israeli military would:
1. Bring back the “struggle with Israel” to the forefront of Lebanese politics, thus cornering the Lebanese Government into capitulation on the Hariri and the disarmament matters.2. Expect a harsh Israeli retaliation, good enough to attract world condemnation, but not strong enough to change realities in Lebanon.3. The operation, dubbed “al-Waad al sadeq” (Faithful Promise) would signal the beginning of a series of skirmishes with Israel and a generalized assault on the Seniora cabinet and the Cedars Revolution, to be accused on treason and collusion with the Zionists.4. With the crumbling of the Lebanese Government under the strikes by Hizbollah-Lahoud-Aoun, the pro-Syrian President would dismiss the Seniora cabinet, and in cahoots with pro-Syrian Berri, would disband the Parliament. A massive campaign of assassinations, arrests and exile would target the March 14 movement, followed by Terror-backed legislative elections, brining back a pro-Syrian Hizbollahi assembly and a radical Government.5. The “putsch” would reestablish a Pro-Syrian-Iranian regime in Lebanon, and reconstruct a third wing to the Tehran-Damascus axis, reanimating the Arab Israeli conflict, rejuvenating the Syrian dominance, isolating Jordan, reaching out to Hamas, crumbling Iraq, and unleashing Iran’s nuclear programs unchecked. The domino effects of Hezbollah’s “Waad al sadeq” are far from being even imagined by Western and Arab policy planners.
Plans and Surprises
Nasrallah seemed to be in control of his strategy when he appeared in his press conference of victory. His back was safe since he has terrorized the Cedars Revolution’s movement, enlisted Aoun’s support (breaking Christian community unity), and pushed Sunni and Druze breakaways to challenge Jumblat and Hariri (the son). To his south, he was applauding Haniya’s Hamas “cabinet” for having already engaged the Israelis. To his east, Syria was mobilizing and waiting. In Iran, the “masters” were extending their strategic umbrella; and in Iraq, the Terror sapping of sectarian relations was on. All the brothers in Khumeini Jihadism were awaiting Hezbollah to break the chain of events from the Galilee. Nasrallah was at the forefront of a plan aiming at wrecking the rising democracy and the fledgling stability of the region. The stakes were really high for the “axis.” But Hassan Nasrallah’s master plan failed. First the Lebanese Government, smelling the odors of conspiracy was quick to distance itself from the operation. “The Government was not informed by it nor does it endorse it,” stated the Seniora release. Second, Israel’s volte-face surprised Hezbollah and their allies. Why would the Olmert Government, declare a full war on an organization that classical armies cannot take out, thought the Tehran planners. Then came, the Arab position: Arabia, Egypt and Jordan, followed discretely by others didn’t extend their full support to the move. They certainly criticized Israel to the fullest of rhetoric, but didn’t praise the “Hizb.” On the international level, the Terror group “that-provide-services” didn’t fare better. The United States firmly extended its bipartisan support to UNSCR 1559; France and the rest of Europe stated the same –with their continental language- Russia wouldn’t side with Nasrallah against the world, and China has other priorities on its plate. Only Iran threatened to wage wars in the rescue of its most western army. Nasrallah fell into his own trap but decided to come up with a contingency plan.
Hizbollah’s Contingency Plan
Not so different from Plan A, the objectives of Plan B have been readjusted. If Israel bombards Hezbollah’s infrastructure to the ground, Iranian oil will rebuild it. If Israel invades by land, it will find itself against a more aggressive Hezbollah than the one of the 1990s. Besides, Hezbollah will attempt nevertheless to go after the Seniora Government anyway. Calling on the “reserves,” Hezbollah enlisted President Lahoud and his son in law Defense Minister Elias Murr to drag the Lebanese Army in the War against Israel’s forces. And in collaboration with Aounist cadres (while the majority of his partisans are still stunned by the events), Hezbollah has unleashed an international campaign against the “inhumane aggression.” If things go well, Nasrallah expect Plan B to become Plan A, and a land advance by Israel would unleash a total offensive against the Government of Lebanon by pro-Iranian and Syrian forces. If Israel moves north to create a safe area against Rockets, Hezbollah would move north to control the rest of Lebanon. The Syrian-Iranian axis will refuse UNSCR 1559, reject international initiatives for disarming the militias, and will make its stand in Lebanon, even if the Switzerland of the Middle East is to be reduced to rubbles. Assad wants to save his regime in Beirut, and Ahmedinijad wants to shield his bomb in the Bekaa: Alea Jacta Est, the dice are rolling.
The Lebanese Army
Hezbollah’s plan for the Lebanese Army is to drag it to a fight with Israel, as a way to destroy it. For the past 16 years Syria and Hezbollah have penetrated the Lebanese Army and installed their followers at various positions. For example, the command of the southern command, the officers in charge of the southern suburb of Beirut, the Murabb’a al amni (security zone for Nasrallah) and many offices in the second bureau are in the hands of Shiite officers linked to Hezbollah. Syria’s allies including the Hezb and Amal can count on 20% influence within the institution. The commander in chief, General Michel Sleiman is neutral, with possibilities of shifts to either side. The head of the military intelligence, a Christian, follows Lahoud orders. The power map inside the Army keeps changing, but at the core of this institution, most officers are pro-Lebanese, close to the West. If Hezbollah pushes the regular troop into battle against Israel, the Army may split.
The West
The United Nations is bound by a resolution it cannot but implement: UNSCR 1559. Having been among those who worked on introducing it in 2004, I have followed up till very recently the international efforts in this regards. There is a solid consensus that the resolution has to be implemented; it is inescapable. The question is who would implement it? Reality is that the Lebanese Government and its armed forces are too weak in front of the Hezbollah-Baath-Ahmedinijad axis. So if a regional bloc is obstructing a UN resolution, the international community should provide the balance of power. Hence, the US and France, along with the European Union, the moderate Arab states with the consent of the Security Council must provide the tools for the Lebanese Government to spread its sovereignty over its national soil, and the support for the Cedars Revolution to revive itself. The options are very limited: Either Hezbollah will dominate the Lebanese Republic, or the latter will disarm Hezbollah. Anything in between would be a waste of time. If Israel stops its operations short of an international intervention, Hezbollah will win the war. If Israel moves forward inside Lebanon after Hezbollah, an international intervention is inevitable. The days, weeks and months ahead will tell.
Propaganda war
Meanwhile Hezbollah and its allies both in the region and in the West are and will be waging the mother of all propaganda wars. The task assigned to the propagandists is to stop military operations so that Hezbollah survives and fail international interventions so that the Lebanese Government collapses. A war of images, photos, mudding, internet, and media will explode in all directions. Operatives helping Hezbollah, including many with Christian names, will be waging an indiscriminate propaganda offensive against Lebanese, Arab, Western and obviously Israeli figures to spread confusion and psychological collapse in the international community. Objective: Obstruct the implementation of UNSCR 1559, trash the March 14 movement, criticize the Arab Government, and incite for Jihadi violence.
Future of the Hezbollah War
Hezbollah waged an Iranian War with Syrian backing. It knew how to start it, but it won’t know how it will end. The forces unleashed in this conflict have been unpredictable including Israel, Lebanon’s politics, the Arab Governments, and the international community. Hezbollah and its regional allies have spoken of “surprises” to come. In fact the latter are pretty much predictable: more rockets on and suicide attacks in Israel, coup d’Etat in Lebanon, and obviously international terrorism, including in the West. But “surprises” could also happen to Hezbollah. The “Waad al sadeq” operation may not be the only miscalculation by Secretary Hassan Nasrallah. The future of Hezbollah’s war is as uncertain as the fate of the organization.
Dr Walid Phares is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, a visiting Fellow with the Foundation for European Democracy, the author of Future Jihad (English) and of books on Lebanon and Iran

una distraccion fraudulenta

(originalmente publicado en tizas)
"Cuando nada más funciona, siempre queda Israel". Explica Amir Taheri que así le gustaba describir al difunto periodista egipcio Lutfi al-Juli el lema del radicalismo árabe hace décadas.
El análisis era válido, porque la obsesión árabe con Israel sí funcionó en incontables ocasiones. Los déspotas utilizaron a Israel como excusa de su brutal gobierno. Los líderes corruptos adoptaban la retórica anti-israelí como medio de desviar la atención de sus malas obras. Los intelectuales confusos utilizaban a Israel como objeto de odio para esconder su ineptitud.
Tampoco eran solamente los radicales árabes. El difunto ayatolá Ruholah Jomeini, padre de la República Islámica de Irán, también utilizaba la retórica anti-Israel cuando quiera que se encontrara contra las cuerdas.
Más recientemente, tres hombres han intentado jugar la baza de Israel como medio de escapar de sus respectivos atolladeros: el Presidente de la República Islámica Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, el Presidente de Siria Bashar al-Assad, y Hassán Nasralah, líder de la rama libanesa de Hezbolá. Todos se encuentran bajo creciente presión, tanto de sus electorados nacionales como de la opinión internacional.
Ahmadinejad se encuentra presionado para responder a la oferta de incentivos de los cinco miembros permanentes del Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU mas Alemania. Sabe que una respuesta positiva a la oferta podría marcar el final de su estrategia de extender la influencia de la República Islámica por todo Oriente Medio - pero un rechazo del paquete podría aislar a su régimen, provocar sanciones internacionales, y debilitar su ya inestable régimen dentro de Irán.
Para evitar tener que hacer esa elección, Ahmadinejad decide jugar la baza de Israel. Esto significa movilizar el activo de Hezbolá que la República Islámica creó en el Líbano en 1982 y que ha financiado, entrenado y armado durante el último cuarto de siglo.
No es ningún accidente que, durante las diez últimas semanas, los suministros de armas a Hezbolá se hayan incrementado dramáticamente. En el mismo período, el ministro de defensa de Irán se reunió con los líderes y comandantes de Hezbolá en al menos dos ocasiones. Los medios iraníes dicen que la República Islámica también incrementó el tamaño de su delegación militar de asesoría a Hezbolá como "precaución contra la agresión israelí".
El Assad de Siria también se encontró en posición de necesitar "un señuelo Israel". Los miembros de su familia y él y su administración se arriesgan a una condena por la presunta implicación en el asesinato del difunto premier libanés Rafik Hariri. Lo que es peor, los detractores de su régimen acaban de crear un frente unido en el que antiguos altos cargos baazistas se sientan junto a lideres de la Hermandad Musulmana y destacadas figuras socialdemócratas y liberales. Assad ha intentado sobrevivir convirtiéndose en un vasallo feudal de Teherán; pero sabe que sus amos iraníes podrían abandonarle en cualquier momento.
Provocar un nuevo conflicto con Israel a lo largo del Líbano podría dar a Assad la posibilidad de presentarse en el papel de pacificador. Buthaina Shaaban, uno de los ayudantes de Assad, ha destacado que, si se les permite volver al Líbano, los sirios están dispuestos a desarmar a Hezbolá y cerciorarse de que la frontera libanesa con Israel está tan tranquila como lo ha estado la frontera de tregua entre Siria e Israel durante décadas. Assad también podría estar dispuesto a abandonar a Hamas, igual que Siria abandonó al grupo terrorista kurdo PKK como parte de un acuerdo con Turquía hace una década.
Hezbolá también necesita un señuelo. Con la salida de los sirios y el inicio de la democratización del Líbano, el grupo se encuentra cada vez más aislado. Sus resultados en las primeras elecciones generales democráticas del Líbano fueron decepcionantes -- y su fracaso en las calles más aún. Cada vez que Hezbolá organizaba una manifestación contra las fuerzas democráticas, las segundas respondían con concentraciones cada vez mayores.
Está claro que la aplastante mayoría de los libaneses quiere ver desarmado a Hezbolá de modo que el país pueda tener un único ejército bajo control gubernamental. Así que, ¿qué mejor táctica para Hezbolá que inventar una nueva guerra contra Israel para recordar a los libaneses que aún necesitan a la milicia como su "resistencia nacional"?
El problema para Ahmadinejad, Assad y Hezbolá es que el señuelo Israel puede no funcionar esta vez como lo hizo en el pasado.
El presente conflicto puede haber desviado parte de la atención del G-8 del dossier nuclear iraní. Pero es improbable que el tema desaparezca.
Ahmadinejad sabe que no existe un electorado sustancial anti-Israel dentro de Irán. Su esperanza, por tanto, es lograr el apoyo de los regímenes y las masas árabes gracias a su postura ultra-radical contra Israel. Pero eso no sucedido. A excepción de Siria, ningún régimen árabe ha apoyado a la República Islámica en el tema nuclear. En cuanto a la mitológica "calle árabe", no hay pruebas de que esté a punto de "explotar" en apoyo de Ahmadinejad.
En cuanto a Siria, es improbable que el conflicto en el Líbano desvíe la atención internacional de la implicación del régimen de Assad en el asesinato de Hariri. Tampoco hay ninguna prueba de que Washington esté dispuesto a llegar a un acuerdo con Damasco para apuntalar el régimen de Assad a cambio de su cooperación en otros temas, incluyendo el desarme de Hezbolá.
El mayor perdedor bien podría ser Hezbolá. Ni Irán ni Siria están dispuestos a arriesgarse a una guerra mayor con el fin de salvarle de la destrucción. Esto quedaba claro el viernes, cuando Ahmadinejad, dando un discurso en una gira provincial, pedía a "la comunidad internacional" que pusiera fin al conflicto "conteniendo a Israel". Esto era extraño viniendo de un nombre que, antes del presente conflicto, había llamado a destruir Israel en más de una docena de ocasiones.
Dentro del Líbano, Hezbolá no ha logrado alistar el apoyo ni siquiera de sus aliados formales, incluyendo a Nabih Berri, el líder del Movimiento Amal chi'í más moderado, o el General Michel Aoun, el político maronita que había firmado una alianza con Nasralah.
Ahmadinejad, Assad y Hezbolá bien podrían haber planeado un conflicto limitado con Israel, en el que el estado judío retrocedería, granjeándoles una victoria moral. Su plan podría haberse basado en la premisa de que Israel no se atrevería a expandir el alcance de la guerra provocada por Hamas y Hezbolá.
Hoy, el trío se encuentra solo. La mayor parte de los árabes rechazan verse arrastrados a una guerra mayor en la forma de la cual nadie les dio vela. Además, la mayor parte de los libaneses no ve el motivo por el que debieran arriesgarse a la destrucción de su país únicamente para permitir a Hezbolá conservar un estado dentro del estado.
A la táctica del "señuelo Israel" se le podría haber pasado la fecha de caducidad.

finalmente el Vaticano confronta al islam

El Vaticano planta cara al Islam
por Daniel Pipes
"¡Ya vale de poner la otra mejilla! Protegernos es nuestro deber". Así hablaba Monseñor Velasio De Paolis, secretario de la Corte suprema del Vaticano, aludiendo a los musulmanes. Explicando su aparente rechazo a la recomendación de Jesús a sus seguidores de "poner la otra mejilla", De Paolis observaba que "Occidente ha tenido relaciones con los países árabes durante medio siglo... y no ha sido capaz de obtener la más mínima concesión en materia de derechos humanos".
De Paolis no es el único ni de lejos en pensar así; en la práctica, la Iglesia Católica atraviesa un cambio dramático de una política de décadas de antigüedad con el fin de proteger a los católicos residentes bajo gobierno musulmán. Los antiguos métodos de diplomacia silenciosa y apaciguamiento discreto han fracasado estrepitosamente. Los alrededor de 40 millones de cristianos en Dar al-Islam, observa Patrick Sookhdeo, del Fondo Barnabas, se encuentran cada vez más como minoría acosada que afronta el declive económico, derechos en reducción y peligro para la integridad física. La mayor parte de ellos, continúa, son ciudadanos de segunda clase despreciados y sospechosos, que afrontan discriminación en la educación, el empleo y ante los tribunales.
Estas circunstancias duras están haciendo que los cristianos huyan de sus tierras ancestrales hacia el entorno más hospitalario de Occidente. En consecuencia, las poblaciones cristianas del mundo musulmán caen en picado. Dos ejemplos ilustrativos pequeños pero evocadores de este patrón: por primera vez en casi dos milenios, Nazaret y Belén ya no tienen mayorías cristianas.
Esta realidad de opresión y declive contrasta de manera dramática con el ascenso de la minoría musulmana de Occidente. Aunque suponen menos de 20 millones y se compone sobre todo de inmigrantes y su descendencia, es una minoría cada vez más afianzada y asertiva, a la que se conceden derechos y protecciones especiales incluso al tiempo que logra nuevas concesiones legales, culturales y políticas.
Esta disparidad en crecimiento ha llamado la atención de la Iglesia, que por primera vez señala al Islam radical, en lugar de las acciones de Israel, como el problema central que afrontan los cristianos residentes con musulmanes.
Rumores de esto podían escucharse ya en la época de Juan Pablo II. Por ejemplo, el Cardenal Jean-Louis Taurán, el equivalente al ministro de exteriores del Vaticano, observaba a finales del 2003 que "Existen demasiados países de mayoría musulmana donde los no musulmanes son ciudadanos de segunda clase". Taurán exigía reciprocidad: "Igual que los musulmanes pueden construir sus casas de oración en cualquier parte del mundo, los fieles de otras religiones deberían poder hacerlo también".
Las demandas católicas de reciprocidad han crecido, especialmente desde la llegada del Papa Benedicto XVI en abril del 2005, para quien el Islam es la preocupación central. En febrero, el Papa destacaba la necesidad de respetar "las convicciones y prácticas religiosas de otros de modo que, de manera recíproca, el ejercicio de la religión elegida libremente esté completamente garantizado a todo el mundo". En mayo destacaba de nuevo la necesidad de reciprocidad: los cristianos deben amar a los inmigrantes y los musulmanes tienen que tratar bien a los cristianos entre ellos.
Los clérigos de nivel inferior, como siempre, son más abiertos. "La radicalización del Islam es la principal causa del éxodo cristiano", afirma Monseñor Philippe Brizard, director general de Oeuvre d'Orient, una organización francesa que centra su atención en los cristianos de Oriente Medio. El Obispo Rino Fisichella, rector de la Universidad Laterana de Roma, aconseja a la Iglesia abandonar su "silencio diplomático" y en su lugar "presionar a las organizaciones internacionales con el fin de hacer que las sociedades y estados de los países de mayoría musulmana afronten sus responsabilidades".
La crisis de las viñetas danesas ofreció un ejemplo típico del desencanto católico. Los líderes de la Iglesia criticaron inicialmente la publicación de las viñetas de Mahoma. Pero cuando los musulmanes respondieron asesinando a párrocos católicos en Turquía y Nigeria, por no hablar de las cifras significativas de cristianos asesinados durante los cinco días de disturbios en Nigeria, la Iglesia respondía con advertencias a los musulmanes. "Si decimos a nuestra gente que no tienen derecho a ofender, tenemos que decir a otros que no tienen derecho a destruirnos", decía el Cardenal Ángelo Sodano, Secretario de Estado del Vaticano. "Tenemos que destacar siempre nuestra demanda de reciprocidad en los contactos políticos con las autoridades islámicas, y más aún en los contactos culturales", añadía el Obispo de archidiócesis Giovanni Lajolo, su ministro de exteriores.
Obtener los mismos derechos para los cristianos residentes en los países musulmanes que los que disfrutan los musulmanes en los países del cristianismo se ha convertido en la llave de la diplomacia del Vaticano hacia los musulmanes. Este enfoque serio y equilibrado marca una profunda mejora de entendimiento que podría tener implicaciones bastante más allá de la Iglesia, teniendo en cuenta cuántos políticos establecidos ponen el acento de su dirección en temas inter-credos. Si los estados occidentales también promueven el principio de reciprocidad, los resultados serían realmente interesantes.

7 puntos importantes en la guerra de libano que pasan desapercibidos

En esta guerra hay algunos puntos muy importantes que nadie ha notado y Oliver Gutta nos lo recuerda (en especial es importante los puntos 3,4 y 5)

Some important missed facts on the Hezbollah/Iran/Syria-Israel war
By Olivier Guitta
In the same vein of my latest post, here is some additional info that has been overlooked:
1- Over two weeks ago, Hezbollah's leader Nasrallah told opposition leader Walid Jumblatt: "The stability of Lebanon is vital for us. We have to preserve the touristic season and continue with a dialogue between the different political parties."
2- After the Syrian Army left last year, not only did Syrians still place officials in the Lebanese Army, Secret Service, and high in the administration (for more on that, please read my piece in the "Daily Standard") , but also Hezbollah did the same.
3- Nasrallah admitted that it took five months of preparation to plan this operation.
4- As Bill Roggio pointed out, linking to the English portion of an Arab paper article:
"The source said more than 3,000 Hezbollah members have undergone training in Iran, which included guerrilla warfare, firing missiles and artillery, operating unmanned drones, marine warfare and conventional war operations. He said they have also trained 50 pilots for the past two years. According to the source, Hezbollah currently possesses four types of surface-to-surface missiles, some of which extend to a distance of 150 kilometers."
But the Arabic version of the piece is, as usual, much more detailed: the 200 Iranian Revolutionary Guards have been stationed in Lebanon since 1990. They have married Shia Lebanese women, mostly "Hezbollah widows" and have changed their names to Lebanese names. They installed over twenty fixed rocket bases in the Bekaa Valley and provided Hezbollah with mobile bases to launch rockets. Furthermore a secret elite force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard composed of about twenty men is watching the Israel Defense Forces' every move with very sophisticated high-tech material and then deciding on the targets to hit inside Israel.
5- Hezbollah is purposefully using Christian, Sunni and Druze villages to fire rockets at Israel. In fact, they count on Israel retaliating in these places, killing non-Shia civilians who then in turn might become hostile to Israel and side with Hezbollah.
6- Saad Hariri, Rafik Hariri's son and leader of the majority bloc in Parliament, called for judging the people who have pushed Lebanon into this unwanted war, i.e. Hezbollah.
7- Saudi Arabia's very unusual condemnation of Hezbollah can be also explained by the fact that Hariri holds dual citizenship, Lebanese and Saudi; that Rafik Hariri was extremely close to the Saudi royal family; and that one of the most important Lebanese communities in the world is in Saudi Arabia, numbering around 150,000.

como se ve aqui, la implicacion irani llega a todos los niveles y la pregunta es ¿no va a ser castigado Iran? ¿hasta cuando va a seguir impunemente atacando a Israel y a los EE.UU sin recibir ninguna respuesta?

La opinion de un israeli pacifista

En Israel hay un movimiento pacifista muy fuerte que se opone a la expansion de los asentamientos judios en cisjordania y gaza y pide el retiro de esas zonas,Amos Oz es uno de los intelectules mas influyentes de ese movimiento:
Es Hezbolá contra Israel y Líbano
Amos Oz es escritor israelí.
EL PAÍS - Internacional - 20-07-2006

Muchas veces ha criticado el movimiento pacifista israelí las operaciones militares de su país. Hoy no. En esta ocasión, no se trata de una batalla por la expansión y la colonización israelí. No hay un territorio libanés ocupado por Israel. Ninguno de los dos bandos tiene reivindicaciones territoriales.
El miércoles de la semana pasada, Hezbolá emprendió un ataque cruel y no provocado contra el territorio israelí que constituía también un ataque contra la autoridad y la integridad del Gobierno libanés democráticamente elegido, puesto que, al atacar Israel, Hezbolá estaba apropiándose de la prerrogativa del Gobierno de controlar su territorio y tomar decisiones sobre la paz y la guerra.
El movimiento pacifista israelí se opone a la ocupación y colonización de Cisjordania. Se opuso a la invasión israelí de Líbano en 1982 porque era una operación que pretendía apartar la atención mundial del problema palestino.
Esta vez, Israel no está invadiendo Líbano. Está defendiéndose del acoso y el bombardeo diario de docenas de nuestros pueblos y ciudades y, para ello, está intentando aplastar a Hezbolá en sus escondites.
El movimiento pacifista israelí debe apoyar lo que no es más que un intento israelí de defenderse mientras sus operaciones estén dirigidas fundamentalmente contra Hezbolá y respeten, en la medida de lo posible, a la población civil libanesa (una tarea no siempre fácil, porque, muchas veces, los lanzamisiles de Hezbolá emplean a civiles libaneses como sacos terreros).
Los cohetes de Hezbolá proceden de Irán y Siria, dos países que son enemigos acérrimos de cualquier iniciativa de paz en Oriente Próximo. No se puede equiparar moralmente a Hezbolá e Israel. Hezbolá apunta contra ciudadanos israelíes estén donde estén, mientras que Israel ataca fundamentalmente a Hezbolá.
Las sombras siniestras de Irán, Siria y el fanatismo islámico se ciernen sobre los pueblos y ciudades que humean a ambos lados de la frontera entre Líbano e Israel y, al mismo tiempo, están aplastando a la sociedad civil libanesa, que acababa de liberarse, gracias a una lucha heroica, de años de colonización siria.
La verdadera batalla que se libra en estos momentos no está produciéndose, ni mucho menos, entre Beirut y Haifa, sino entre una coalición de naciones que buscan la paz -Israel, Líbano, Egipto, Jordania, Arabia Saudí- y el islam fanático, alimentado por Irán y Siria.
Si, como esperamos todos en Israel -tanto los halcones como las palomas-, la derrota de Hezbolá está cerca, los vencedores serán Israel y Líbano. Es más, es posible que la derrota de una organización terrorista islamista multiplique las posibilidades de paz en la región.

Cuidado con Iran:Ahmadijnejad dijo otra declaracion muy intrigante

El presidente irani dijo otra declaracion muy intrigante e inquietante:
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad here Tuesday referring to the crimes of the Zionist regime in the region said that the volcano of the rage of nations facing the tyranny of the arrogant powers is on the verge of eruption.
Speaking at the 8th gathering of the nationwide university and higher institute officials as well as Basiji scientific groups in Mashhad, he said that the present conditions are quite abnormal and the scenario of aggression is about to end.
"The Zionists themselves have realized that they have launched a risky move and are aware that the flame of the fury of the regional states will set them ablaze," he added.
Stressing that the enemies of Muslim nations are approaching the end of the road and are about to drown, the president said that for this reason they have subjected Muslim nations to their rage and hatred.
"The day on which the regional people will rejoice will definitely come soon and the world is standing on the threshold of great development and the Muslims are expected to overcome their aggressive enemies," said the president Ahmadinejad addressing the Zionist regime as well as their supporters proposed, "Just as you created such a situation you had better put an end to it yourself."
se podria pensar que es una balandronada mas del "iluminado" que gobierna Iran,pero para mi que algo mas de lo que esta pasando en Libano podria estar tramando este siniestro personaje

hezbolá inicio el conflicto por ordenes de Iran y Siria

El siguiente reportaje de El Pais analiza de manera clara la implicacion de Iran y siria en el conflicto de Libano,es importante resaltar que El Pais es un periodico de izquierda, moderada eso si,por lo tanto no simpatiza mucho con Israel lo que le da mas contundencia a este reportaje
Bajo la sombra de Irán y Siria

Hezbolá no actúa tanto por solidaridad con los palestinos como para servir a los intereses de sus dos principales valedores, los regímenes de Teherán y Damasco
IGNACIO CEMBRERO - Madrid
EL PAÍS - Internacional - 19-07-2006

Cuando el 12 de julio Hezbolá quebró las reglas no escritas que imperaban, desde 2000, en la frontera entre Líbano e Israel, no lo hizo sólo por solidaridad con Hamás y los palestinos atacados en Gaza por el Ejército hebreo.
La captura de dos soldados israelíes y la muerte de otros ocho por la resistencia chií libanesa, que capitanea el clérigo Hasan Nasralá, responde en buena medida a los intereses de sus dos tutores, Irán y Siria.
El primer país contribuyó, a principios de los ochenta, a la fundación de Hezbolá, cuyos milicianos fueron entrenados por los Guardianes de la Revolución iraníes en la llanura libanesa de la Bekaa. Hoy día les financia, pero niega suministrarles armas.
El segundo se apoya en Hezbolá para seguir ejerciendo influencia en un Líbano que convirtió en un protectorado hasta que su Ejército y sus servicios secretos fueron obligados a retirarse después del asesinato de Rafik Hariri, el primer ministro libanés, en febrero de 2005.
"Tales ataques [de Hezbolá] no pueden llevarse a cabo sin el beneplácito de los círculos sirios", afirmó, el lunes, a la radiotelevisión alemana Deutche Welle, Detlev Mehlis, el juez alemán que hasta enero presidió la comisión de investigación sobre el atentado que costó la vida a Hariri. La crisis hace olvidar este asesinato, en el que aparentan estar implicados los servicios secretos sirios. "Para Damasco", añadió Mehlis, [Líbano] "sigue sin ser un Estado autónomo". Con la reactivación de Hezbolá demuestra que para buscar soluciones todavía hay que contar con Siria.
"Destruiré este país"Cuando el jefe de Estado sirio, Bachar el Asad, recibió por última vez en audiencia a Hariri, le espetó, según recuerda estos días la prensa beirutí: "Si Chirac [presidente francés] quiere sacarme de Líbano, destruiré a ese país". Con la ayuda de Israel está cumpliendo su amenaza.
Irán también tiene interés en relegar a un segundo plano su principal contencioso internacional: el programa de enriquecimiento de uranio nuclear que ha puesto en marcha.
Ali Lariyaní, jefe adjunto del equipo negociador iraní, reconoció el pasado fin de semana, en declaraciones a la agencia oficial IRNA, que "los dirigentes del régimen han llegado a la conclusión de que no se deben aceptar las condiciones previas por parte de los europeos". En claro, Teherán rechaza la oferta de acuerdo europea.
Alemania y los cinco miembros permanentes del Consejo de Seguridad propondrán en breve al máximo órgano de la ONU que apruebe una resolución ordenando a Irán que suspenda su programa nuclear.
La crisis en Oriente Próximo retrasa este debate en Naciones Unidas. "(...) Irán, Hezbolá y Hamás tienen manifiestamente otras ideas en la cabeza y ésa es la razón por la que estamos discutiendo de la situación en el sur de Líbano", se quejaba, el lunes, John Bolton, embajador de Estados Unidos ante la ONU.
Teherán y Damasco se coordinan. Lo hicieron para frenar a su vecino común, el Irak de Sadam Husein. Desde que el desmoronamiento de la Unión Soviética le hizo perder uno de sus principales valedores, Siria estrechó aún más lazos con Irán que le proporciona crudo con descuentos.
Tras el inicio, hace una semana, de la que podría ser la sexta guerra de Oriente Próximo, el presidente de la República Islámica, Mahmud Ahmadineyad, se presenta, a veces, como el protector del régimen baazista de Assad, cuyas riendas están en manos de la minoría religiosa alauí en un país de mayoría suní.
Casi a diario, los dirigentes iraníes advierten de que un ataque israelí contra Siria acarreará "pérdidas inimaginables" para el Estado hebreo y sus aliados.
Para Ahmadineyad, la crisis no sólo contribuye a postergar la disputa nuclear sino que convierte a Irán en una potencia regional de primera fila, al tiempo que el auge del precio del crudo engrosa las arcas del Estado iraní.
Influencia en Irak

La intervención norteamericana en Irak, en 2003, ya acrecentó, paradójicamente, el peso de Irán en su vecino occidental. No en balde, el 60% de la población iraquí es de religión musulmana chií, como la gran mayoría de los iraníes, y parte del clero iraquí estuvo además exiliado en Irán.
Este protagonismo radical chií de Ahmadineyad y Nasralá, aliados con la minoría alauí de Siria y con los palestinos de Hamás, inquieta a Occidente, pero también al resto del mundo musulmán.
Arabia Saudí lanzó el lunes una inesperada andanada contra Hezbolá, Hamás y los que "están detrás" de ellos. "Algunos elementos y grupos han caído en el error de tomar decisiones por su cuenta que Israel ha aprovechado para desatar una guerra feroz contra Líbano y encarcelar a todo el pueblo palestino", rezaba un comunicado oficial saudí.
"El mundo suní se alegrará, probablemente, de que Israel tenga éxito frente al régimen alauí" de Siria y sus aliados, escribió ayer Ed Lasky, director de la revista The American Thinker.
El triunfo de Israel no consistirá sólo en recuperar con vida a sus dos soldados capturados, sino en conseguir su viejo anhelo de que el sur chií de Líbano deje de ser una plataforma desde donde Hezbolá le amenace. A juzgar por las declaraciones de la guerrilla chií y de sus patrocinadores iraníes, le falta mucho para alcanzar ese objetivo.

Hezbolá tiene que dejar de hacer esta mierda

Segun se comenta en los medios es lo que le dijo Bush a Blair:

Bush: "Siria tiene que obligar a Hezbolá a dejar de hacer esta mierda"
EL PAÍS - Internacional - 18-07-2006
Sin darse cuenta de que hablaba con el micrófono abierto, el presidente de EE UU, George W. Bush mostró su irritación con Hezbolá, en una conversación privada con el primer ministro británico, Tony Blair, durante el último almuerzo del G 8. Bush dijo que Siria debería presionar a la milicia chií libanesa para que "deje de hacer esta mierda".
George Bush. Creo que Condi [la secretaria de Estado, Condoleezza Rice] va a ir [a Oriente Próximo] muy pronto.
Tony Blair. Bien, eso es lo que importa. Llevará algún tiempo salir de ahí. Pero al menos le da a la gente un...
G. B. Un proceso, estoy de acuerdo. También le conté [a Rice] tu oferta [no está claro a qué se refería].
T. B. Mira, si ella [Rice] va, debe tener éxito, mientras que yo sólo puedo salir y hablar.
G. B. La ironía es que lo que tiene que hacer es conseguir que Siria obligue a Hezbolá a dejar de hacer esta mierda, y esto se habrá acabado.
Bush mostró irritación hacia el secretario general de la ONU, Kofi Annan, por pedir un alto el fuego entre Israel y Hezbolá.
G. B. No me gusta la secuencia de eso. Su actitud es básicamente un alto el fuego, y luego ocurre todo lo demás.
T. B. Creo que lo realmente difícil es que no puedes parar esto a menos que consigas acordar esta presencia internacional.
G. B. Me apetece decirle a Kofi que hable por teléfono con [el presidente sirio, Bachar el] Asad, y que haga que pase algo. No estamos echando la culpa a Israel. No estamos echando la culpa al Gobierno libanés.
A mi Bush se me hace un pesimo presidente de EE.UU (si no es que el peor) en esta guerra contra el terrorismo que empezo el 11-S ,se la ha pasado cometiendo errores garrafales sistematicamente,pero aqui en eso que dijo tiene toda la razon

La prensa europea le niega a Israel el derecho a defenderse

Hermann Tertscht (para mi el mejor columnista de El Pais) habla hoy de la forma tan sesgada de ver las cosas de la prensa europea,que le niegan a Israel el derecho a defenderse de Hezbolá

Recetas insultantes

Resulta extraodinaria la rapidez y contundencia con la que la inmensa mayoría de los medios y de la opinión pública europea han llegado a la conclusión de que la actual escalada bélica en Oriente Próximo es fundamental cuando no exclusivamente culpa de Israel. Es extraordinaria porque rara vez en la historia del conflicto ha sido tan evidente el detonante de la crisis. Hace tres semanas el partido del Gobierno palestino, la organización terrorista Hamás, hizo un túnel desde Gaza, atacó una base militar en suelo israelí, mató a unos soldados y se llevó secuestrado a otro. Dos semanas después, otro grupo terrorista, Hezbolá, también integrado en un Gobierno, el libanés, atacó otro puesto militar israelí, mató a unos soldados y secuestró a dos. Si las cosas fueron así -nadie lo discute-, tiene poco sentido, como dice el escritor Henryk Broder, que los diarios titulen "Israel ataca en dos frentes" y no "Israel responde a ataques en dos frentes". Pues no. Es culpable. Si unos se limitan a la titulación torticera, otros lanzan obscenidades antisemitas hasta sugerir o afirmar que las "judiadas" actuales revelan que siempre hubo razones para expulsar o exterminar a este incordio de pueblo. Sí, créanlo, cosas así se han publicado estos días.
Y en pleno salto cualitativo de la guerra islamista, algunos Gobiernos europeos, el español entre ellos, pretendían ayer una rotunda desautorización de la respuesta de Israel a la agresión. Si la cumbre de los G 8 en San Petersburgo ha recordado la obviedad del derecho de autodefensa de Israel, a otros se les ha olvidado. Recetan paz, diálogo y desarme. Al agredido. Apelan a la buena fe y a la armonía pero se apresuran a tachar a Israel de responsable. Han olvidado todo y solo ven muertos en Beirut. Hay alguna perversión de origen. Toda iniciativa de Israel para cambiar el status quo, incluida la retirada del Líbano hace seis años y la de Gaza, es celebrada no como un intento de buscar soluciones sino como síntoma de debilidad.En el mundo árabe y en Europa. El islamismo, convencido de estar en una fase decisiva de su guerra santa, se nutre de esta interpretación para aumentar la presión terrorista, a sabiendas que cualquier respuesta israelí será objeto de condena. Si ha sabido presentar como éxito propio la inhibición europea en la lucha contra el terrorismo en Irak, también confía en que la discordia de la comunidad internacional impida medidas de represalias serias contra los adalides de esta nueva escalada que son Teherán y Damasco.
Ante la agresión de Hamás y Hezbolá, Israel solo tenía malas opciones y una necesidad inaplazable de reaccionar. Resulta evidente que, en esta nueva constelación con creciente protagonismo de Irán, Israel no se puede permitir que la mitad meridional de su vecino esté controlada por una franquicia iraní cada vez más y mejor armada. Ni tener en Gaza una lanzadera de cohetes permanente. El pueblo palestino ha de concluir que su Gobierno islamista los quiere convertirse en colectivo suicida. Utilizar a los niños como bombas o escudos y mostrarlos a las cámaras granjea simpatías y fomenta el odio a Israel. Pero solo hunde más al pueblo palestino en el culto a la muerte, multiplica la tragedia y profundiza la miseria.
Beirut no puede aspirar a la paz mientras su territorio ocupado por Hezbolá es una cabeza de puente de un Irán cuya razón de Estado proclamada es la liquidación de Israel, que podrá equivocarse pero nunca permitirse el perder una guerra, porque siempre le va la existencia en ella y por ello no reinterpreta a sus enemigos. Europa debe dejar de intentar convertir a Hamás y a Hezbolá en interlocutores. Tratar con tanta despreocupación y negligencia la seguridad existencial de Israel como hacen algunos europeos raya en acto inamistoso. La cultura del apaciguamiento y el desistimiento ante la amenaza pasa hoy por flexibilidad coqueta en Europa. Pero es un insulto recetársela a Israel en Oriente Próximo. Ofensa inútil además. Porque los gobernantes israelíes lo hacer mejor o peor. Pero jamás delegarán la seguridad de la nación. Son niños quemados por la historia. En sentido estricto y literal.

Rango maximo de los misiles de Hezbolá

en el mapa se puede ver el rango maximo que alcanzan los misiles que Iran le proporciono a Hezbolá (para mas grande favor de hacer click en el mapa) claramente se ve que los misiles podrian llegar a las afueras de Tel-aviv y la amenaza que ello conlleva

los planes israelis:crear una zona de contencion

El siguiente articulo habla de que israel pretende crear una zona de contencion

(buffer zone) en el sur de Libano
IDF enters Lebanon, a new buffer zone?
By Bill Roggio

After a weekend of repeated Hezbollah missile strikes into Israel, including hits in Afula and the surrounding communities, and Haifa, the Israeli Defense Force has launched a ground incursion into Lebanon. The IDF "briefly entered southern Lebanon to target Hizbullah bases along the border in order to push the terrorist group out of rocket-firing range," according to the Jerusalem Post.
This ground strike is limited in nature, and does not appear to be the start of a larger push into southern Lebanon or the Bekaa Valley. "IDF troops had leveled land inside Lebanese territory extending up to one kilometer from Israel's northern frontier," Haaretz reports, with the goal being to "prevent the reestablishment of Hezbollah guerrilla posts along Israel's border."
Israel is currently signaling it is interested in establishing a buffer zone on the Israeli border, and not planning a major ground invasion of Lebanon and a large scale advance into the Bekaa Valley. "One of the aims of the [military] operation is to establish a security area in Lebanon, without the presence of IDF soldiers," Defense Minister Amir Peretz said. "Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Dan Halutz declared that the IDF currently had much better alternatives than to launch a major ground incursion into Lebanon," reports the Jerusalem Post.
A variant of the buffer zone solution was tried in the past, when Israel occupied southern Lebanon after the 1982 invasion and supported the South Lebanese Army. Israel maintained a force of several thousand troops in southern Lebanon, with the brunt of the security provided by the SLA. In May of 2000, Israel withdrew from Southern Lebanon without warning, and the SLA was overrun by Hezbollah. The Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon handed Hezbollah its greatest victory to date, as it could claim it drove the "Israeli occupiers" from the country and promoted itself as a legitimate "resistance force".
Six years later, Hezbollah is a state within a state, with the ability to start a war and conduct missile strikes deep into Israeli territory. Hezbollah possesses an arsenal of over 11,500 missiles, supplied by Iran. Asharq Al-Awsat gives additional information of Hezbollah's capabilities and Iran's involvement in funding, arming and training Hezbollah to use advanced weaponry:
The source said more than 3,000 Hezbollah members have undergone training in Iran, which included guerrilla warfare, firing missiles and artillery, operating unmanned drones, marine warfare and conventional war operations. He said they have also trained 50 pilots for the past two years. According to the source, Hezbollah currently possesses four types of surface-to-surface missiles, some of which extend to a distance of 150 kilometers.
The recent statements by Minister Peretz and Lt.-Gen. Halutzis do not exclude the possibility of deeper strikes into Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, but the statements indicate the Israeli government's military and political goals are not that ambitious at this time. The continual launch of longer range rockets into Israel may change the calculus. Today, the Israeli Air Force destroyed "at least one long-range Iranian missile capable of hitting Tel Aviv."

Respuesta desproporcionada

Este carton de Cox & Forkum habla de que las las criticas injustas en contra de Israel por su contrataque a Hezbolá son la verdadera respuesta desproporcionada,tal parece que en europa no se han dado cuenta de que los que empezaron esta guerra fueron los terroristas de hezbolá,los israelis solo se estan defendiendo de una agresion injustificada (Israel se habia retirado de Libano hace años) que en ese legitimo acto de defensa lamentablemente mueran civiles libaneses ,es debido a que hezbolá cobardemente esta mezclado con la poblacion civil,si en verdad Israel quisiera lastimar a los civiles libanese como hace hezbolá con los civiles judios hubiera miles de bajas libanesas

como fue el ataque a la corbeta Israeli

Israel recibio ayer un duro e inesperado golpe al ser atacada una corbeta suya que estaba frente a las costas de libano:
Hizballah Brings out Iranian Silkworm to Hit Israel Navy Corvette
DEBKAfile Exclusive Military Analysis
July 15, 2006, 1:37 PM (GMT+02:00)
The disaster that overtook one of the Israeli Navy’s state of the art warships, Ahi-Hanit, was thoroughly planned in advance by an enemy which managed to take Israel’s military commanders by surprise. It has shocked Israel’s military to a degree comparable to the profound effect on US forces of al Qaeda’s 2000 attack on the USS Cole in Aden.
The Saar-5 class corvette, with a crew of 61 seamen and a 10-man helicopter crew, was hit Friday, July 17 at 20:15 hours, while shelling Beirut international airport. Four crewmen were reported missing. One was found dead Saturday aboard the crippled ship. Three are still sought by rescue teams.
DEBKAfile’s military sources reveal that the warship was struck from Beirut by an Iran-made C-802 shore-to-sea missile of the Silkworm family. Weighing 715 kilos, with a range of 120km, the missile is armed with a strong anti-jamming capability, which lends it a 98% success rate in escaping interception.
The Israeli ship is armed with an advanced Barak anti-missile system, which may have missed the incoming missile. Israeli military planners must now look at the vulnerability of the navy following the appearance of the first Iranian C-802 missiles
The Israeli chief of staff, Lt.Gen. Dan Halutz, started his news conference Friday night just 15 minutes earlier at 20:00. The campaign was then 60 hours old from the moment Hizballah raiders captured two Israel soldiers in an ambush inside Israel. He was poised, assured and clear, until a reporter asked if the military goals of the Lebanese offensive matched the objectives set out in government decisions. His answer was: “Don’t start looking for cracks.”
But Hizballah found the cracks 15 minutes later. Its secretary general Hassan Nasrallah put in a telephone appearance on Al Manar TV straight after General Halutz to inform his listeners across the Middle East that one of Israel’s warships was ablaze at that very moment. He said the ship had been crippled while it was bombing Beirut and was sinking. Hizballah, he added, had prepared a number of surprises for Israel and its armed forces Despite several Israeli air raids, the station is still broadcasting.
In Israel, the Hizballah chief’s words were taken at first as an implausible threat for the future – until the order of events began to unfold.
DEBKAfile’s military sources reveal:
Shortly before 20:00 hours Friday, Hizballah launched a pair of land-to-sea C-802 missiles against the Israeli ship from the coast of Beirut. The trajectory of the first was adjusted to a landing amidships from above. It missed and exploded in the water. The second was rigged to skim the water like a cruise missile. It achieved a direct hit of the Ahi Hanit’s helicopter deck, starting a fire. The ship began to sink, as Nasrallah said, and would have been lost were it not for the speed and bravery of crewmen who jumped into the flames and doused them before the ship exploded and sank.
It is not known whether the men dead and missing paid with their lives for saving the ship.